2018 U.S. Congressional elections

[Voronwë the Faithful]

West Virginia.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Tomorrow's primary here in California may end up deciding whether the Democrats have a chance to take back control of the House. There are more than half a dozen currently GOP-held seats that could be flipped. But the Democrats have to actually have someone running in the general election in order to have a chance to do so, and it is looking increasingly likely that in some of the most vulnerable districts, they may not. Why? Because California several years ago adopted the (in my opinion) ridiculous "top two" free-for-all "jungle primary" system in which the top two finishers in the primary advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation and in some of the most competitive districts there are so many Democrats running that they are likely to split the votes so much that the top two vote getters could end up being Republicans.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Here is a good article at CNN about why the Democrats may lose out on up to three House seats that they otherwise would be likely to flip.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

There are still a lot of votes to be counted, and at least two races are still uncertain, but it looks likely that Democrats will advance to the general election in each of the potentially vulnerable GOP seats that they were worried they would get locked out of because of the "jungle primary". On the other hand, the GOP also avoided their potential nightmare scenario of having no candidates in either of the two major statewide races in the general election, but getting John Cox onto the ballot for governor. He has no chance of defeating Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsome, the Democratic candidate for governor, but if the GOP didn't have a candidate running in either the governor race or the race for Diane Feinstein's senate seat, it would likely suppress their turnout for other races statewide.

[Frelga]

That is such an undemocratic law. It heavily favors the incumbent based on name recognition alone, and completely locks out third parties. Or even second parties, in some places.

My polling place ran out of ballots yesterday. They had a single electronic machine, which took about 5 minutes per voter IF they didn't have to stand there trying to figure out how to use a touch screen and what all the propositions were. At least it was the kind that printed out a paper ballot that then went into the ballot box.

I hope they are better prepared for November.

[Griffon64]

Plenty of ballots and a nice, quiet, efficient facility at mine. Voter turnout did seem kind of light, which is to be expected for mid-terms I suppose. They had electronic machines in 2016 but this time it was all paper.

[Primula Baggins]

Good. Ours are paper, read electronically at the department of elections, but the paper is retained (I'm not sure for how long) in case a recount is needed, or if there's any question of the validity of the result.

*Does not make semiannual rant about why every state should adopt Oregon's simple, convenient, secure system of voting*

*This time*

[Sunsilver]

I voted today in Ontario's provincial election. There was a paper ballot which you marked with an x. You put the ballot in a cardboard sleeve so no one could see your choice, then fed the top of the ballot (an 8 1/2 x 11" piece of paper) into a machine on top of the ballot box. It was pretty much identical to a printer picking up a piece of paper and feeding it in to be printed.

I don't know if the machine had the ability to read the ballot, or if they still have to be counted by hand.

One thing seems certain: the current incumbent, Kathleen Wynne, is NOT going to win. Whether it will be Rob Ford's brother, Doug (Progressive Conservative) or Andrea Horwath (N.D.P.) as our next premier remains to be seen.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

A huge upset in a New York Democratic primary yesterday in a district that covers part of Queens and the Bronx. Joe Crowley, who was the number 4 person in the party leadership in the House, and someone who was talked about as a possible successor to Nancy Pelosi, was ousted by a 28-year-old protégé of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Like Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez identifies as a Democratic Socialist. She is likely to become the youngest female member of the House (the district is strongly Democratic, so the winner of the primary is very likely to win the general election). One telling fact is that her victory is another example that money in politics is not always the deciding factor, as she raised only $300,000 compared to $3.3 million by Crowley.

Though I've not heard the comparison made, this reminds me of the primary loss by the then Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014 to an extreme Tea Party candidate, David Brat. It will be interesting to see if it foretells a similar major shift in the Democratic Party, as we have seen in the GOP.

[Dave_LF]

One is certainly brewing. Whether it simmers over or not remains to be seen.

I don't feel good about answering right-wing radicalism with left-wing radicalism, and feel like there's a lot of room for moderate candidates to win on nothing more complicated than the "I'm not insane" platform, but I've been miscalling these things lately.

ETA: Not to imply that Ocasio-Cortez is insane, just that on a nationwide basis, Democrats shouldn't need to run on a platform of radical leftward change in order to defeat radical right Republicans.

[Túrin Turambar]

Though I've not heard the comparison made, this reminds me of the primary loss by the then Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014 to an extreme Tea Party candidate, David Brat. It will be interesting to see if it foretells a similar major shift in the Democratic Party, as we have seen in the GOP.

I saw that exact comparison in the Guardian, so you're not the only thinking it.

This probably shouldn't be unexpected. The Democratic Party picked Clinton over Sanders based on electability, and Clinton went on to lose. It's probably not surprising they're doing what the Republicans did in 2010 and 2016 and saying "screw it, if we can't win with moderate and mainstream candidates let's just pick who we want and see what happens". So we'll see what happens.

I wonder if this is a temporary thing, like Goldwater '64 or McGovern '72, or if the internet has led to a decisive shift in the ability of the true believers within the major parties to organise themselves nation-wide, spread and exchange their ideas, and get their candidates up.

[yovargas]

I definitely think the internet is both empowering and creating a lot of zealotry on all things. I don't think this is a good thing.

[Griffon64]

Both Republicans and Democrats are now plagued by the realities of a two-party system: you cannot represent everybody's views with only two parties.

[Impenitent]

How likely is John Fitzgerald to be elected?

Sent from a tiny phone keyboard via Tapatalk - typos inevitable.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Someplace between 0% and 0%.

(Fitzgerald is a Holocaust-denier with neo-Nazi ties who finished second in the 'top-two' primary in California's 11th District but way behind the Democratic incumbent, Mark DeSaulnier. Even though he has no real chance of winning, just the fact that he is on the ballot is quite disturbing. One recent post on his website was entitled “Why Are Powerful Jews Pushing Mass-Immigration And Forced-Multiculturalism Throughout The U.S. And Europe?”)

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[Frelga]

Yeah, he's not getting elected, but it's still telling how Nazis keep cropping up on Republican tickets.

Illinois governor breaks with Cruz over Nazi candidate

On Friday, Cruz urged residents of the district to write in a candidate or choose the Democrat — in this case, Rep. Dan Lipinski.

“This is horrific. An avowed Nazi running for Congress. To the good people of Illinois, you have two reasonable choices: write in another candidate, or vote for the Democrat,” Cruz wrote. “This bigoted fool should receive ZERO votes.”

Rauner declined to go that far.

“No,” Rauner answered when asked if voters should instead cast a ballot for Lipinski, according to WCIA TV. “The one thing I will say is the person, that guy, Johnson or whatever his name is, should not be on the ballot.”

But it is.

I hate Illinois Nazis.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

As opposed to any other Nazis?

Sent from my LG G6 using Tapatalk

[Frelga]

As opposed to any other Nazis?

The Blues Brothers

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

Yes, our top two open primaries are awful. I have nobody to vote for in several races this November, and my area is just open enough (barely) so that "both" parties will be on the ballot.

I have pollsters calling me all the time (what, did I become important all the sudden?) asking which of the two I support. Neither. But there are only two. Neither. You are intending to vote? Yes, ballot measures still matter. So you're going to vote? Yes. So which one of the two will you choose? Neither. You know there are no third parties on the ballot? Yes. So which will you choose? Neither.

Taking away my choices doesn't give you my vote, and it irritates me as well.

And before you say it, yes, I've already been told that my 3rd party vote in CALIFORNIA is the reason Hillary lost.

[Inanna]

So, what will you do (genuine curiosity)? Write-in?