Brexit Carried - Endgame

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Apparently, at least according to a fellow from the Financial Times that I was listening to yesterday, even while the popularity of the Brexit deal and May's handling of it overall has gone down, her personal popularity has actually gone up somewhat, as people have admired how steadfast she has been in the face of such intense criticism from all sides. That might not matter for the no-confidence vote. What might be a more significant factor in allowing her to survive is … who else really would want the job right now?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And then there is this:

[Alatar]

And she has indeed survived. But with a full third of her own party voting against her. Ouch.

[River]

When the atom bombs fall all that will be left are cockroaches, coyotes, Keith Richards, and Theresa May.

[Primula Baggins]

And Paul Manafort, surely.

[Sunsilver]

Voronwë, I KNEW someone would post that here!

Oh, and River, let's not forget Willie Nelson:

[Túrin Turambar]

And she has indeed survived. But with a full third of her own party voting against her. Ouch.

It's an awkward position for the party. Had the challengers got fewer than 100 votes, you could dismiss the anti-May faction as a ginger group. Had they got more than 150, she'd probably be done for. As it stands, they got 117 to her 200, which is enough to weaken her authority but not enough to end it. At any rate, she says she won't lead the Tories into the next election. Now we just wait for the next development.

[Alatar]

From the mouths of babes...

https://www.facebook.com/irishtimes/vid ... TEyODgxNQ/

[Voronwë the Faithful]

So the British parliament has resoundingly rejected the Brexit deal that May negotiated. Presumably this means that the UK will leave the EU with no agreement in place. Reportedly May will be facing another no-confidence vote.

[elengil]

So the British parliament has resoundingly rejected the Brexit deal that May negotiated. Presumably this means that the UK will leave the EU with no agreement in place. Reportedly May will be facing another no-confidence vote.

Understanding so little of all of this, is there no option to hold another vote on leaving nationally? It sounds as if public opinion has shifted and I read that there was some suggestion of Russian interference first time around. Could a new election result allow the UK to stay in?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

My understanding, limited though it may be, is that while some opponents of leaving the EU have called for a new referendum, that is highly unlikely at best.

[elengil]

My understanding, limited though it may be, is that while some opponents of leaving the EU have called for a new referendum, that is highly unlikely at best.

If one were to happen, would the EU allow the UK to remain in if the votes went that way? Or is it just too late for that?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

I'm not sure. May invoked Article 50 of the EU's charter on March 29, 2017, giving notice that the UK would leave in two years, which is up on March 29, 2019, just 10 weeks away. I don't know if there is even a mechanism for extending that date, or cancelling it. She (or her successor, if she is voted out of office) could try to negotiate a different deal with the EU, but: (1) there is very little time; and (2) the European countries have indicated that they are not interested in further negotiations (at least as I understand it). So there doesn't seem to be much options other than a so-called "hard Brexit" by default, in which the UK leaves the EU with no relationship in place. Al and Túrin and others can speak better to what the ramifications of that will be than I could.

[Túrin Turambar]

The E.U. can extend the leave date, and the Commission has indicated it would be inclined to do so if there was a reason (e.g. a new vote was scheduled). That said, at the moment neither major party has an appetite for a new vote. May was elected on a platform of delivering Brexit and says she'll stick to it, and Corbyn was always pretty lukewarm on the EU anyway and hasn't shown much inclination to stop Brexit (old-school Labour Party socialists have tended to view the common market/EU as a manifestation of international capitalism and a potential barrier to the re-nationalisation of British industry). One of the many ironies of this whole affair is that May, who was a remainer in the campaign, might actually be more pro-EU than Corbyn.

I should add that "at the moment" is a highly-relative term here - everything could change now, and a second vote might get more support as other options dwindle.

Fun fact - today's vote was the worst defeat for a Government in the House of Commons since 1924. Still, it's really hard to see how the no-confidence motion will pass as the DUP and Tory MPs who voted "No" are stil likely to vote for the Government.

[Alatar]

What Túrin said. But yeah, although outwardly everyone is refusing to consider a second referendum, the expected outcome is that given the choice between a no deal Brexit and a second referendum, Corbyn will be forced by his party to call for one. The EU will revoke or extend Article 50 if necessary, and frankly, will do anything they can to encourage Britain to remain. The problem is that MPs don't want to appear weak to their constituents, but know that what is on the table is a terrible deal for Britain, which was obvious from day one. There was no way the EU could give the UK a good deal or they would have triggered the collapse of the EU. Every disgruntled electorate would have triggered a leave vote. Its a mess.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Thanks, Al and Túrin.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

As expected, May has survived the latest no-confidence vote. I have no idea what comes next.

[Túrin Turambar]

TLDR News runs through the options:

[Frelga]

My Tapatalk screen looked like this, and I thought the senior fall was some sort of a reference.

Screenshot_20190116-113830.jpeg (71.67 KiB) Viewed 4961 times

[Primula Baggins]

That was informative. Thanks, Túrin. (I didn't see the ad!)