Brexit Carried - Endgame

[axordil]

There is a story going round that between them they will make such a botch of the negotiations that May will be able to sack them both and not have to enact article 51

And then it turns out everyone loves "Springtime for Hitler."

[anthriel]

[quote="Pearly Di"]I freely admit that I am in something of a Remain bubble. Many of my friends, both RL and 'imaginary', including quite a few church friends, voted Remain.

Yes, the Brexit vote was a big populist rebellion against the political elite. Yes, it has exposed a huge faultline in Britain. The Leave voters, too, have been betrayed, in my opinion, given that every single architect of the Brexit campaign has now fled the scene. Unbelievable. Reality long overtook satire.[\quote]

Thank you, Di, for weighing in on that! Yes, whether they were hoodwinked or not, it looks like many working class people felt that they were better off without the (perceived as) ponderous weigh of EU bureaucracy. I have spoken to my Manchester friend, and she feels like that should have been obvious, even to people in the USA.

I hope they were right, actually. Otherwise this will all have been for nothing.

[Frelga]

Well, it's not obvious to me, but that's because I'm woefully ignorant about British (UK? I can't even keep that straight ) government system. I learned today that there is a Shadow Arts minister, and I thought it was something out of Harry Potter.

[anthriel]

Well, it's not obvious to me, but that's because I'm woefully ignorant about British (UK? I can't even keep that straight ) government system. I learned today that there is a Shadow Arts minister, and I thought it was something out of Harry Potter.

[eborr]

I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around "Boris Johnson, chief diplomat".

It has been suggested that it's a move to consolidate Anglo-American relations should the White house be Trumped, the feeling is that they are kindred spririts

[eborr]

Well, it's not obvious to me, but that's because I'm woefully ignorant about British (UK? I can't even keep that straight ) government system. I learned today that there is a Shadow Arts minister, and I thought it was something out of Harry Potter.

The shadow arts minister looks after mime and puppetry

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

Now Catalonia is voting to leave Spain, in spite of Spain telling them quite directly not to. Scotland is unhappy with Britain leaving the EU and is considering leaving Britain in order to be in the EU.

Both these events are rather pleasing to me.

[JewelSong]

Both these events are rather pleasing to me.

Really? Why?

[eborr]

Now Catalonia is voting to leave Spain, in spite of Spain telling them quite directly not to. Scotland is unhappy with Britain leaving the EU and is considering leaving Britain in order to be in the EU.

Both these events are rather pleasing to me.

The Scots have got a pretty good case, a substantial majority, something like 66% voted to remain, and it's always been the Nats goal that Scotland should be an independent Nation within the EU.

The Scottish Govt have been offered a part in the "leaving" negotiations. My expectation is that prior to the discussion they will draw up a number non-negotiables, which will include access to the single market.

And this is the thing, all the EU leaders have said if you want access to the single market then you have to accept all three components, which are the free movement of goods and services; the free movement of capital; and the free movement of labour. Now the free movement of Labour is the one thing that all Brexiters have in common, and here they are either deceiving themselves or really dumb, because without this third component they don't have a chance of the single market. Some of those in the firing line, eg Liam Fox has already said that he will not entertain the free movement of labour, and is prepared to sacrifice the single market if necessary. Fox is an extremely stupid and dangerous man, he is the one who agreed to spend43 billion on 2 aircraft carriers, and then said he didn't see why they needed aircraft, he shut down a British Aerospace contract to save £400,000, and to replace that contract ended up giving billions to Boeing. Sorry ti digress, but I expect for the Nat's and quite probably for a lot of the conservative party the single market is a red line.

If we don't get it the Nats will put through legislation to request an independence referendum, something the Govt would find very difficult to refuse, and they will win, and I will move to Scotland

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

Both these events are rather pleasing to me.

Really? Why?

Secession to me is at worst a neutral thing, and at best a good thing. More local levels of government are more responsive to local needs and more responsive to local pressures. The trend towards higher levels of government is, in my opinion, a bad thing for the people. Plus smaller regional governments make it easier for people to leave if they don't like the government they are under.

Even within a region I support smaller divisions, such as a few years ago there was a movement to cut California into six separate states.

This does not guarantee any individual government would actually be good, but it does make it easier to deal with those governments.

If the Scots want to be part of the EU, why should they be tied to England that doesn't want it? If the Catalonians want to be their own state, why should non-Catalonians tell them otherwise?

[Frelga]

I get the best stuff via The_Angel's twitter.

Anti-Brexit traitors outed on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/i/moments/788802086079201280

[Alatar]

This pic of Britain leaving the EU is very Tolkien, donthcha think?

[Primula Baggins]

Into the West. . . .

[Alatar]

[Frelga]

That was hilarious and informative. I had no ideas about all the various combinations.

[Lalaith]

That's very confusing about the sports stuff.

[Jude]

The inside scoop on Brexit:

[Túrin Turambar]

So Prime Minister May has called a snap election for June 8. At first glance, it struck me as a strange move, given the Conservatives already have a majority and the parliament is not yet two years old. But she is probably banking on the apparent unpopularity of Jeremy Corbyn, and seeking a victory of her own to legitimise her agenda.

After opinion polls missed Brexit and, by a much wider margin, the result of the 2015 election, people will probably be cautious about polling going in this time. That said, the Conservatives have a significant lead.

This election is interesting for people outside the U.K. as it'll be an electoral test for a politician from the anti-establishment left in a major democracy (if Jean-Luc Mélenchon makes the second round of the French election today there'll be another). Labor is presumably banking on the idea that Corbyn can ride the same surge of discontent which carried Brexit and Trump to victory. Corbyn leads a divided party and has little support from its political establishment, but that didn't hurt Trump. But if the polling is correct, he has a very steep hill to climb.

[Jude]

Question: if Teresa May is soundly defeated in the upcoming election, is there a chance that Brexit will be delayed, or even cancelled?

[Túrin Turambar]

Question: if Teresa May is soundly defeated in the upcoming election, is there a chance that Brexit will be delayed, or even cancelled?

I can't see how. From a legal standpoint, the withdrawal process has been revoked. From a political standpoint, my understanding is that all major parties have pledged to honour the result of the referendum. And from a practical standpoint, Jeremy Corbyn is lukewarm on the whole Brexit-EU question and I can't see him risking a mandate to try to stop it.