2016 United States Election

[Maria]

Hooray for the New York Times!

[Dave_LF]

Trump's support in Utah, while never particularly strong, is cratering now to the point that he's legitimately in danger of losing the state. If that happens, the question is whether Clinton will carry it, or whether it will go to surging independent Mormon candidate Evan McMullin.

This is kind of a weird thing to say, but that fact is actually making me gain respect for the LDS church. Over Evangelicals, at any rate (speaking collectively, of course. Individuals get (dis)respected on their own individual merits ).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The latest woman to come forward with accusations against Trump of inappropriate behavior basically says that he did exactly the thing that got the most attention in his Access Hollywood tape.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

[Cerin]

There's a surging independent Mormon candidate for President?

[Dave_LF]

Only in Utah. Or more precisely, he's only competitive in Utah; he's on the ballot in a handful of western states.

And in reference to my own post, I'm not the only one thinking those things. Just randomly came across this in an article about Hamilton, of all things:

It is notable, actually, that politicians affiliated with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints — a church that was a good sport when it came to "South Park" and "The Book of Mormon" — have been among the most principled in their opposition to Trump and his debasement of the discourse surrounding competition for the highest office in the land.

[Cerin]

Only in Utah. Or more precisely, he's only competitive in Utah; he's on the ballot in a handful of western states.

And in reference to my own post, I'm not the only one thinking those things. Just randomly came across this in an article about Hamilton, of all things:

It is notable, actually, that politicians affiliated with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints — a church that was a good sport when it came to "South Park" and "The Book of Mormon" — have been among the most principled in their opposition to Trump and his debasement of the discourse surrounding competition for the highest office in the land.

I wonder if that's more a function of financial security than anything else. The bible belt is suffering more than Colorado financially, and Trump represents the 'up yours' to the financial elite on the part of those people we read about yesterday in the article you linked to. Whereas more prosperous Coloradans probably have a vested interest in not seeing the current world order turned on its head; or in other words, they can afford to be affronted by Trump's egregious behavior.

edit

oops, meant Utah above, rather than Colorado

[River]

Though Colorado *is* doing rather well. Or, the Front Range is. Other parts are struggling and have been struggling for a long time.

That said, the general inclination of Coloradans across the political spectrum is "up yours". The Dem caucus went to Bernie and when our governor announced he was a superdelegate pledging to Hillary people were a more than a little annoyed. I got to listen to a public radio host hammer him for that on the air (Hickenlooper makes a habit of getting interviewed by Colorado Public Radio...and they don't necessarily throw softballs). The GOP, either due to disorganization or fear of the outcome, did not hold the traditional caucuses and instead skipped ahead to the state party convention. That went to Cruz. If they'd actually gotten it together/had the nerve to hold a caucus, the outcome may have been different. It might have gone to Trump but, then again, a "Trumpian" Republican is challenging the current Democratic incumbent for his Senate seat and it's not going well for him at all.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Perhaps the most serious allegation has now emerged, with a woman named Summer Zervos, who was a contestant on The Apprentice in 2006, alleging that:

Trump kissed her, touched her breast and tried to get her to lie down on a bed with him during a 2007 meeting about a possible job.
"He put me in an embrace and I tried to push him away. I pushed his chest to put space between us and I said come on man, get real. He repeated my words back to me, 'Get real,' as he began thrusting his genitals," Zervos said.
Zervos said she thought Trump was going to take her to dinner to discuss a job, but the meeting took place in his bungalow at the Beverly Hills Hotel, where he later ordered a club sandwich for them to share.
"I wondered if the sexual behavior was some kind of test and whether or not I had passed" by rejecting it, she said, but Trump later offered her a job at a golf course for half the salary she had requested.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... spartanntp

(When allegations of sexual misconduct start to emerge, Gloria Allred is bound to pop up. That in no way suggests that I am less likely to believe the allegation, but I find her opportunistic-ness disquieting.)

[Inanna]

This is sickening. This man is one of two people who could be President. Just sickening.

[Primula Baggins]

This is the only man who could be president. That's even more sickening.

[Dave_LF]

1 of 3. McMullin's chances are small, but they're a lot better than zero.

[Primula Baggins]

He'd have to (1) win Utah (2) under circumstances where neither Clinton nor Trump broke 270, and then (3) be elected by the House of Representatives.

Winning Utah is the only step that has a percent chance of happening with a nonzero numeral before the decimal point.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

McMullin has more of a chance of being president than I do. Beyond that, not so much. That article at FiveThirtyEight (by someone named Benjamin Morris, who posts there almost exclusively about sports, not politics, not Nate Silver, Harry Enten, or any of the other political writers), is a fun exercise in in wild possibilities, not something to be taken seriously.

Then again, the Cubs are the favorites to win the World Series, and Bob Dylan just won the Nobel Prize for Literature. And Rod Stewart was knighted.

[Frelga]

And Trump is a major party nominee.

Silver did tweet about McMullin but he said basically "not impossible but extremely unlikely."

[Inanna]

Anyone planning to see the debate?

ETA: am watching it. Hillary is doing good.

ETAA: and now am depressed.

ETAAA: Hillary's closing statement rocked.

[Frelga]

I heard about 20 seconds of Trump repeating the word Constitution and apparently having no idea where he was going with that. I was driving, so had to change the station in the interest of public safety.

I spent a few days in Arizona, and the morning newspaper, courtesy of the hotel, said on the front page that Clinton was polling higher than Trump. In Arizona. He'll probably still get the state but dayum.

In Utah, 538 has McMullin at 10% chance, and some polls place him ahead of Trump.

Meanwhile, does anyone else think that Melania Trump is low key trolling her husband's campaign? Rick rolling in the convention speech was the first clue, but her "defense" of the sexual assault tape was damning. Otoh, what is she going to say? "My husband is a horrible human being and I would never have married him if he were not so rich"?

[Inanna]

I think Melania has 5 brain cells & is doing the one thing she knows what to do. Protect her back. I mean imagine being married to that... that... that...


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[Maria]

I watched it.
It was, of course, appalling.

[Primula Baggins]

The biggest reaction the next day seems to be to Trump's refusal to commit to accepting the results of the election until he sees what they are. (He said today in Ohio that he'll accept them "if I win.")

With that and other things he said, and his general demeanor in contrast to Clinton's, he did himself no favors last night. I suspect Clinton will be getting yet another bounce in the polls.

[Frelga]

Strictly speaking, his acceptance is not required. But yeah, that was appalling.