Ukraine (and Russia)

[River]

No need to be sorry. I've been suspecting that about his source even though his source is B92. Every now and then he starts on about something that I end up tracing to Pravda. However, I'm rather suspicious of my sources as well.

S is actually very pro-Western (he was neck-deep in Otpor in the 90's) but that doesn't mean he trusts the EU and NATO (he was on a SAR/R team in Belgrade in 1999). He is also very jaded about Eastern European political movements in general (he was neck-deep in Otpor in the 90's). That said, if you back him into a corner, like I did last night, he'll cut the crap and plainly admit that the coup narrative doesn't really add up and that Ukraine is better off with a government that leans towards the EU. Buddying up with Russia will not un-fail the Ukrainian state. Nor will it solve their rampant corruption problems. The EU might not save them either but at least there are examples of good governance among the EU states.

I am also starting to suspect that, in Ukraine, "neo-Nazi" and "fascist" is a label the pro-Russian contingent slaps on anyone who isn't part of them. Ukrainian nationalists did side with Germany during WWII. However, given that Stalin's government engineered the Ukrainian famine in the early 30's, I'd say that outcome was understandable.

In Serbia the nationalists favor Russia and the labels they throw at their opposition have, as far as I can tell, no basis in fact. But that's a whole other situation.

[Frelga]

Incidentally, the same sources that called the protest leadership (insofar as there was a leadership) neo-Nazis were also saying that the whole thing was orchestrated by Jews. I do wish they'd pick one and stick to it.

At the same time, the accusations against a certain part of the most active, and violent, groups of protestors of being extreme right wing nationalists are not unfounded. It's just not the whole picture.

[River]

Incidentally, the same sources that called the protest leadership (insofar as there was a leadership) neo-Nazis were also saying that the whole thing was orchestrated by Jews. I do wish they'd pick one and stick to it.

It was neo-Nazi Jewish fascist ultra-nationalists colluding with Muslim atheist socialist Westerners. Get it right!

[Frelga]

Incidentally, the same sources that called the protest leadership (insofar as there was a leadership) neo-Nazis were also saying that the whole thing was orchestrated by Jews. I do wish they'd pick one and stick to it.

It was neo-Nazi Jewish fascist ultra-nationalists colluding with Muslim atheist socialist Westerners. Get it right!

I think you mean gay atheist profit-seeking Westerners imperialists.

[River]

Whoops. Got my propaganda confused.

So to battle Western imperialists, Russia will dismember any neighboring country that gets too cozy with the EU or NATO. Makes perfect sense.

Meanwhile, I heard on NPR that Russia now holds Crimea. Can anyone verify?

[Passdagas the Brown]

Hi River,

I am in Romania today. All reports point to the fact that Russia effectively controls Crimea. Ukrainian military personnel have been asked by the Ukrainian government to stay behind their gates and not engage the Russian army, for fear of a bloody massacre that the Russians will claim was provoked by Ukrainian attacks.

But Crimea will not be held so easily. Though the majority is pro-Russian, 10% of the population are Tatars (many of whom protested against the recently-departed pro-Russian government), and there are a significant number of western-leaning elements in the population. This is a different demographic mix than there is in Abkhazia, Georgia, where the Russian military is still ensconced after 7 years.

IMO, Russia has made an incredibly costly mistake. This "occupation" will cost it dearly both in Ukraine, and globally.

The G8 has threatened to expel Russia, and it should do so sooner rather than later. And then, they need to start hitting its banking sector and all other sectors of Russia's economy that can be impacted via global financial tools. Russia will soon be in economic shambles, and its global political capital is not likely to recover for a very long time.

I just hope that the new Ukrainian government is able to stand and resist.

[River]

Thanks!

I agree that smacking Russia in the pocketbook is a fabulous response. However, it might take years before the Russian government capitulates or the Russian people manage to mount an effective opposition. At least, that's the way it seems to have gone with Iran and the Balkans.

How nervous is Romania? I read today that Poland is fearing for its borders, but that may have been bad information.

[JewelSong]

Could someone please explain to me, in as simple a way as possible, WHY Russia has decided to invade Ukraine?

[River]

For the sake of simplicity, I'll skip the nuances and conspiracy theories.

In November, the pro-Russian Ukrainian government rejected a plan to set Ukraine on a path towards EU membership. Months of demonstrations and riots resulted in an overthrow of that government and a new, pro-EU government is now forming or has been formed.

Russia is mad about that. There is a large ethnic Russian population in eastern Ukraine and Crimea and there is also a Russian naval base in Crimea. Russia is claiming that the new Ukrainian government is an existential threat to these Russians in Ukraine and to its naval base. So they're invading.

They did this to Georgia in 2008. Basically, if you have a sufficient fraction of ethnic Russians in your population and you make moves towards NATO or the EU, Putin will suddenly decide you're a threat and invade.

tl;dr: Ukraine is being invaded because Putin felt like it.

[Passdagas the Brown]

River explained the proximate causes more succinctly than I could. That's the crux of it.

Though there are deeper "ultimate" causes that Putin's Russia has been very open about. The broader strategic rationale is that Russia cannot allow Ukraine to be integrated into either the Atlantic system (NATO) or the European Union, if it wishes to regain its regional hegemony.

One of Putin's pet projects, which he feels may correct the "rollback" of the Soviet Union (a phenomenon he has personally called "tragic"), is his "Eurasian Union" project, which is supposed to go live in 2015. This would be a hierarchical union, dominated by Russia, which is intended to further integrate (i.e. subjugate) the independent nations of the former Soviet Union under a new union. The union will be less overtly autocratic than the Soviet Union, but it's a project meant to revive "greater Russia." Indeed, Putin publicly stated that the Eurasian Union would incorporate the "best values of the Soviet Union."

Vladimir Putin is a significant threat to Eurasian democracy, there's no doubt about that now.

[Passdagas the Brown]

River,

Romanians are nervous about the ramifications (economic, refugees, etc), but not about being invaded or anything silly like that. Romania is a member of the European Union and NATO, and territorially safe from Russian aggression.

However, Romanian-speakers in neighboring Moldova are very nervous about what this means re: Transnistria, the majority Russian-speaking "illegal breakaway state" in the country, which hosts a Russian military contingent. Moldova is neither a member of the EU nor NATO, and Russia always has its eyes on it. There is zero chance that Russia would consider invading Moldova proper, but there is a chance that they will start bulking up their support for Transnistria, both economically and militarily.

This is a serious time in Europe. What happens in the next few weeks is critically important, and what the US and EU do will echo for a long time. I think the Obama Administration is doing all it can at the moment, though I hope to see stronger measures coming soon. One key response, which Germany unfortunately still opposes, is expelling Russia from the G8. IMO, that is a dramatic and costly option, but it needs to happen now. Secretary Kerry has already raised it as an option, and I hope Merkel comes around.

[JewelSong]

Thanks, River. It seems that my youngest son put it best then (in his most succinct, Aspergers way) when he wrote me.

"Mom, why is Russia invading Ukraine? That is just f***ed up!"

So I will inform him that he is correct in his assessment.

What a world.

[Frelga]

PtB, what, in your estimation, would be the consequences of expelling Russia from the G8?

[River]

So today I (re)learned that there's an oil pipeline through Ukraine. If Russia gets expelled from the G8 they might choke the oil supply.

[Frelga]

This is surreal. It's like the opposite of blitzkrieg. What's molasses in German?

Not to say it isn't deadly. Brings to mind Boston Molasses Disaster.

[axordil]

So today I (re)learned that there's an oil pipeline through Ukraine. If Russia gets expelled from the G8 they might choke the oil supply.

If they had the infrastructure to move that oil anywhere else, it might be more of a threat. So far as I know there's no completed pipeline that would let them send it to, say, China, without a detour through Kazakhstan...and that's assuming that single line isn't already close to capacity. So sure, they can cut off their own cash flow in spite. For a while.

[eborr]

So much hypocrisy and double standards.

I don't believe any of them but the notion that the people who overthrew the legitimately elected president are all liberal democrats is disingenuous.

The Washington Post which does not normally takes the Kremlins line notes that Svoboda and Pravy Sektor, groups have played a prominent part in the protests.

Now while these groups for publicity purposes don't celebrate Hitler's birthday in public, they have policies which are akin to the National Front in both France and the UK, which would be enough to make anyone who is not of Ukrainian origin concerned.

In any event much as people want to posture and wave their arms around there is nothing they can do. By privatising the energy industries the European governments with the exception of Norway are very much dependent on Russia for their energy, so all Putin has to do is to threaten to turn off the tap.

I just hope not too many innocent people are killed, and some kind of resolution comes about where perhaps the Crimean and eastern Ukraine get some kind of independence.

[Passdagas the Brown]

PtB, what, in your estimation, would be the consequences of expelling Russia from the G8?

They'll mess with the gas.

Here's a map of the gaslines running from Russia through Ukraine and into the EU:

http://www.eegas.com/ukraine.htm

Ukraine, and the EU, gets a significant percentage of its fuel from Russia. And given that the Russian government controls the companies controlling those lines, it can open and shut those lines as it sees fit (and has done so in the past to punish Ukraine for one slight or another).

There's a reason Germany is less sanguine about expelling Russia from the G8 than the U.S. is...

But I would argue that the broader principle of not letting Russia invade a European country with impunity, and not letting Russia establish a firm foothold too deep into Europe, is far more important here. The EU has to be willing to take an economic hit in order to punish Putin as harshly as possible. Military options are off the table, so they need to go to the hilt on economic and political sanctions. And that includes shutting Russia out of the G8 community.

[axordil]

It was pointed out on NPR today that a lot of Russian money--much of it dirty--finds its way to Western Europe. Putin may simply believe the EU is greedier than it is strategic at this point.

[Passdagas the Brown]

Here's a decent breakdown of why European countries are afraid to go with more punitive measures:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eur ... ml?hpid=z1

Frankly, that kind of short-sighted thinking is extremely dangerous. If key EU countries are not willing to tighten their belts for the near term, the subcontinent's long term future could be jeopardized.

And eborr - while there are some right-leaning elements in the very broad-based Ukrainian government, it is a massive exaggeration to assert that far right elements have any real power in the arrangement. The opposition movement to the former pro-Russian government was incredibly diverse, including liberal and conservative elements, Jewish groups, etc. The current leaders of Ukraine are far more committed to pluralism than Yanukovich and his stooges.

There are some important nuances here, and ethnic Russians in Ukraine need to be respected (though there are few signs that they are being persecuted).

But there's a solidifying truth. Russia is wrong. And it has to pay, economically and politically, for its actions.

If not, Eastern Europe will be far less stable than we had hoped for, and Ukraine might eventually be absorbed into Russia's Eurasian Union. And Eurasian nations bordering Russia - the stans and jans in particular - might as well throw in the towel. They'll have no recourse against Russian aggression.