Ukraine (and Russia)

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Frelga
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Post by Frelga »

Meanwhile my parents have been talking to their friends in that proverbial Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine. The latest joke is that people in Ukraine are afraid to speak Russian - what if someone turns up to protect them.
If there was anything that depressed him more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life.

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River
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Post by River »

Because I'm not going to be spending the day cleaning and doing repairs on that flood-damaged condo my parents and I own (yep, six months later, it's still not done).

Because I won't have to run off at lunchtime to meet a plumber who will fix the botched job that other plumber did at said condo.

Because I won't have to take off again in the late afternoon to go see a doctor about red and itchy eyes (all weekend long; fortunately it's allergies).

Because I won't start the day with a meeting with my boss.

Because, due to all of the above, I might actually be able to do an experiment and do it properly, instead of botching the job, not having time to redo it, and thus being left with wasted material and nothing resembling interpretable data.

However, I might decide to spend most of my open time today job-hunting.

Believe it or not, the mess in Ukraine is a distraction for me. Keeps my mind off my failed post-doc, my twerp of a boss, my gloomy job hunt, and my damaged property ($20K and rising). Unfortunately for my edification regarding Ukraine, my mind has had to be on my more immediate problems these last three days.

You should probably move this post and the one I'm responding to the coping thread or kvetching thread.
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Voronwë the Faithful
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

I misunderstood you. I thought you meant that you thought the situation in Ukraine looked more promising today.
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Post by Passdagas the Brown »

I'm just glad to be safely in Kiev. :)
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Frelga
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Post by Frelga »

PtB, I'd be interested in anything you can share.
If there was anything that depressed him more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life.

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River
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Post by River »

Voronwë the Faithful wrote:I misunderstood you. I thought you meant that you thought the situation in Ukraine looked more promising today.
Nah. If anything, from what little I've gleaned, it's looking as bad as or worse than ever.

My husband is reporting something about neo-Nazis marching around in Ukrainian cities beating up Russian speakers. He picked that up in the Serbian blogosphere. The Serbian blogosphere picked it up from Ukrainians who've fled to Serbia. Sadly, this is all in Serbian and since I speak no polite Serbian, I can't verify anything for myself (I can cuss real well, though :P). I'm taking this with a several grains of salt, especially given Frelga's joke.
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Post by Passdagas the Brown »

First attacks on Ukrainian military personnel in Crimea are being confirmed as we speak. A number of soldiers have been detained by shadow Russian forces, and it seems a Ukrainian soldier has been killed - though we're waiting for confirmation.

For Yatsenyuk, this is a serious escalation, and I imagine the Ukrainian government will eventually retract its recent statement that it is not seeking NATO membership. IMO, NATO membership for Ukraine is now a certainty in the future, no matter what Kissinger recommends.
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

River wrote:
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:I misunderstood you. I thought you meant that you thought the situation in Ukraine looked more promising today.
Nah. If anything, from what little I've gleaned, it's looking as bad as or worse than ever.
That's why I was surprised! I was hoping you had some positive information that I had not heard.
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Post by Passdagas the Brown »

The only "positive" information I can glean from all this is that it looks unlikely that Putin will try to grab other parts of eastern Ukraine. But now that Ukrainian military personnel still in Crimea have been authorized by Kiev to use force against Russian/ Crimean forces that attack them (attacks that have now been confirmed as leading to the death of at least one Ukrainian officer), the situation could escalate and give Putin a pretense for entering other parts of the country.

Putin really is a sh!#.

The Obama Administration and the EU need to come up with a much, much harsher round of sanctions now. If these don't manifest themselves quickly, I'm going to start questioning my general support of President Obama's foreign policy.

Russia just annexed part of Ukraine, fer crying out loud! Sanctions on 7 Russians is not nearly enough.
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River
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Post by River »

Working my way through the VICE videos. My head about fell off when the reporter found those Chetniks. I find it amusing that the Russians are howling about Ukrainian nationalists when they have Chetniks manning their checkpoints.
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Post by Passdagas the Brown »

River wrote:Working my way through the VICE videos. My head about fell off when the reporter found those Chetniks. I find it amusing that the Russians are howling about Ukrainian nationalists when they have Chetniks manning their checkpoints.
That moment just floored me. Those Serbian Chetniks could possibly be some of the worst war criminals in Europe, and there they are helping Russia subdue Crimea. Anyone who believes even a shred of what Russia is claiming needs to watch these videos.

Parts of the VICE News coverage is better than what some intelligence services are collecting from their own in-country sources. That's how good it is.
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Frelga
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Post by Frelga »

And speaking of intelligence services, where were they? Why did all of this, including Russia moving thousands of troops around, seem to come as such complete surprise?
If there was anything that depressed him more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life.

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Post by Passdagas the Brown »

Wasn't a surprise at all, actually. Those troop movements were known across the EU, and in Washington, as they were happening.

There's just very little that can be done about it, to be honest. Just as there was very little that the US and NATO could do when Russia invaded Georgia.

Personally, I think the US needs to quickly start making more credible threats (on top of economic and political sanctions), including through rapid and substantial military assistance to Kiev. The Obama Administration has already promised such military assistance, but the wheels need to turn faster, IMO.

But it's becoming increasingly clear that de facto or de jure, Crimea will probably remain a part of Russia for the foreseeable future.
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Post by Voronwë the Faithful »

Honestly, I don't think the promised military assistance is going to make much difference, no matter how fast the wheels turn. Ukraine is not going to be able to effectively fight Russia, and they would be foolish to try.
"Spirits in the shape of hawks and eagles flew ever to and from his halls; and their eyes could see to the depths of the seas, and pierce the hidden caverns beneath the world."
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Primula Baggins
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Post by Primula Baggins »

I would think that military assistance would be intended as a deterrent to Russia reaching further, not as assistance to Ukraine in trying to throw the Russians out of Crimea.
“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
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River
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Post by River »

Voronwë the Faithful wrote:Honestly, I don't think the promised military assistance is going to make much difference, no matter how fast the wheels turn. Ukraine is not going to be able to effectively fight Russia, and they would be foolish to try.
They could, however, subject Russia to a long, grueling, and miserable guerrilla campaign.
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Post by Passdagas the Brown »

What Prim and River said.

I would add that the provision of such military assistance would primarily serve the purpose of providing a credible "threat," which would hopefully not have to be tested.

As Putin calculates his next move, he will be far less likely to be aggressive if he knows that such an action will lead to the bolstering of the military forces of countries that he seeks to control.

That's partly why I think Ukraine, and Georgia, need to get on a fast track to NATO membership. It's the most effective deterrent of Russian aggression there is.
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Frelga
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Post by Frelga »

River wrote:
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:Honestly, I don't think the promised military assistance is going to make much difference, no matter how fast the wheels turn. Ukraine is not going to be able to effectively fight Russia, and they would be foolish to try.
They could, however, subject Russia to a long, grueling, and miserable guerrilla campaign.
Neither Ukraine nor Crimea have the terrain for it. It's not like Chechnya with its Caucasus peaks. Crimean mountains are neither very high nor very steep. Besides, I suspect Russia will not hesitate to resort to attacks on civilian population, which is about the only effective counter tactic against guerrilla warfare.
If there was anything that depressed him more than his own cynicism, it was that quite often it still wasn't as cynical as real life.

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Post by Passdagas the Brown »

Frelga wrote:
River wrote:
Voronwë the Faithful wrote:Honestly, I don't think the promised military assistance is going to make much difference, no matter how fast the wheels turn. Ukraine is not going to be able to effectively fight Russia, and they would be foolish to try.
They could, however, subject Russia to a long, grueling, and miserable guerrilla campaign.
Neither Ukraine nor Crimea have the terrain for it. It's not like Chechnya with its Caucasus peaks. Crimean mountains are neither very high nor very steep. Besides, I suspect Russia will not hesitate to resort to attacks on civilian population, which is about the only effective counter tactic against guerrilla warfare.
Possibly - but I think the likelihood of Russia invading mainland Ukraine is very small at this point. Putin has Crimea, and the Russian economy will pay a significant price for that. I don't think his critical faculties are so bad that he would risk the deep and widespread international isolation that would occur if he tried to take the entirety of Ukraine - or even parts of the east. What he now feels the license to do in Central Asia, the Caucuses and Transnistria, is another story. Our inability to effectively counteract such aggression will almost certainly have consequences elsewhere.

In short, this really is a global security problem. Anyone who tries to trivialize it as a local concern doesn't have a good understanding of what just happened.
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River
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Post by River »

From VICE:

Dispatch 17
Dispatch 18

What's creeping me out, and has been all along, is that, while Russian troops are present, it's the civilians and local militiamen who are being aggressive. I've no doubt that they are feeling emboldened by the invasion and referendum. However, it's got some weird echoes of the break-up of Yugoslavia. Milosevic worked very hard to keep his hands clean, just as Putin is clearly working to keep his hands clean.
When you can do nothing what can you do?
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