The Conspircacy Theory

[axordil]

With the knowledge that such events occur, it is small wonder that there are whispers about modern medical activities.

This is hard to argue with, unfortunately. Because of past events still within living memory, one cannot simply dismiss even some of the most outlandish conspiracy theories, one has to attempt to debunk them. Of course, the act of debunking indicates you're part of the conspiracy...

It's a closed hermeneutic, which are damned hard to break out of.

[Primula Baggins]

It's too big a step, for me, from "some believe the poor are expendable" (unquestionably true) to "therefore the poor are being targeted by a vast [governmental or oligarchic] conspiracy to wipe them out." The existence of an outrageous belief does not necessarily lead to outrageous action. It can. But it does not follow of necessity, or the twentieth century would have been Hitlers wall to wall and we would probably not be alive here having this discussion.

Proving the existence of the belief does not prove the existence of the conspiracy.

[WampusCat]

I have often been accused of being part of a Vast Media Conspiracy to do one thing or another. Not likely! From what I've seen of newsroom, journalists barely communicate with each other enough to get the next day's paper out. They definitely can't sustain a conspiracy.

I suspect the same is true for most professions or agencies or governments accused of conspiring on a massive scale.

[axordil]

It's too big a step, for me, from "some believe the poor are expendable" (unquestionably true) to "therefore the poor are being targeted by a vast [governmental or oligarchic] conspiracy to wipe them out." The existence of an outrageous belief does not necessarily lead to outrageous action. It can. But it does not follow of necessity, or the twentieth century would have been Hitlers wall to wall and we would probably not be alive here having this discussion.

Proving the existence of the belief does not prove the existence of the conspiracy.

The main thing the poor are targeted by is supreme indifference to their existence.

[Griffon64]

I have often been accused of being part of a Vast Media Conspiracy to do one thing or another. Not likely! From what I've seen of newsroom, journalists barely communicate with each other enough to get the next day's paper out. They definitely can't sustain a conspiracy.

I suspect the same is true for most professions or agencies or governments accused of conspiring on a massive scale.

As a person somewhat familiar with the workings of a newsroom, I tend to concur.

[Frelga]

Here's an interesting article on the way humans deal with random events and coincidences. It addresses the need we have to believe that things happen for a reason or at least on purpose, which is one of the roots of many conspiracy theories.

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

When you desire meaning, when you want things to line up, you forget about stochasticity. You are lulled by the signal. You forget about noise. With meaning, you overlook randomness, but meaning is a human construction.

You have just committed the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

The fallacy gets its name from imagining a cowboy shooting at a barn. Over time, the side of the barn becomes riddled with holes. In some places there are lots of them, in others there are few. If the cowboy later paints a bullseye over a spot where his bullet holes clustered together it looks like he is pretty good with a gun.

By painting a bullseye over a bullet hole the cowboy places artificial order over natural random chance.