Climate Science Blunders

[vison]

Scientists have noticed, however, that the overall temperature of the Gulf Stream seems to be dropping, and has dropped a pants-pooping 30 percent since 1992. As you probably guessed, we again have climate change to thank. Before someone in the comments screams, "OH SO NOW GLOBAL WARMING MAKE PART OF THE OCEAN COOLER?!?!?!" keep in mind that when hot air melts a glacier, the hunks of ice break off and cool the water they melt into. . . .

This is a cool site. Language issues, though.

[vison]

The full text of the Oxburgh Report.

[River]

1. We saw no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice in any of the work of the Climatic Research Unit and had it been there we believe that it is likely that we would have detected it. Rather we found a small group of dedicated if slightly disorganised researchers who were ill-prepared for being the focus of public attention. As with many small research groups their internal procedures were rather informal.

Oh too true. This could be said for any gang of researchers and I feel so bad for the CRU guys. It's sort of like a typical family just had their housekeeping put up on international television. Science is toil and scientists learn very early in their careers that outside their niche no one is going to care....until they do. Furthermore, no one likes archiving or documenting. Keeping detailed notes in your lab notebook gets really tedious when you're basically just doing the same thing every day and it feels time-consuming to write proper notes when you could be taking or analyzing data. And when you're under pressure to get a publishable result, any publishable result, doesn't matter if it's the one your boss expects or something completely unexpected and therefore even cooler, those minutes seem to count. I won't even go into the eating and sleeping habits of your typical scientist but let's just say science is never a 9-5 job.

2. We cannot help remarking that it is very surprising that research in an area that depends so heavily on statistical methods has not been carried out in close collaboration with professional statisticians. Indeed there would be mutual benefit if there were closer collaboration and interaction between CRU and a much wider scientific group outside the relatively small international circle of temperature specialists.

This is actually reflective of an issue within science in general. Research is carried out mostly by small groups. They're under pressure to get something done fast, they want the credit, and frankly collaborators can be a real pain in the bum and finally, if they can kludge things together and publish what's the problem? So it's a bit sad and disturbing just how much work out there gets done by people who really don't have the background to do it right, though they often get it done well enough. It probably didn't even occur to CRU to bring in a professional statistician since their methods were working and to bring in a statistician they'd either have to find the funding and go through the hiring process or risk a collaboration fiasco. And old rivalries can get in the way, though that old silliness is going away in some areas and the old barriers are coming down. Which is fine with me since I rather enjoy working with physicists and I think my current boss is happy to have someone in the lab who DID NOT need a lecture on sterile technique or a lesson in how to use a pH meter.

[narya]

Some people have postulated that we could slow global warming by painting all of our roofs white to make them reflect more of solar energy. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cool_roof. Sorry I don't have a more erudite link.)

This seems unlikely to me, when you compare the square footage of roofs with the square footage of the earth (not to mention all the oceans, with very low albedo), but if there is some plausibility to it, what happens when we start going into solar power in earnest to avoid using fossil fuels. Will all that black, absorptive material significantly decrease our albedo and contribute to global warming?

[Primula Baggins]

I don't know about slowing global warming, but having a light-colored or white roof definitely reduces heat absorption within a particular building. In places where you're paying to cool the buildings most of the time, that's going to save energy. In places where you're paying to heat them most of the time, maybe you'd save energy with a dark roof.

I think you're right about the area not being enough to make a difference in global warming. You might think it would if you lived in a city. But in most of the world, cities are pretty far apart.

[River]

Changing the roof color, AFAIK, only affects global warming in the sense that it affects the energy use of the building the roof is part of.

[Primula Baggins]

It's not a bad idea even if it can't save the world all on its own.

[Inanna]

It's not a bad idea even if it can't save the world all on its own.

None of these ideas can save the world all on its own. Sometimes I wonder whether all our ideas put together, with the entire human population participating, can save the world.

I think we've screwed up big time.

[MithLuin]

Yeah, it's easier when you know that destroying the Ring by dropping it into a particular volcano will do the job and save the world. Maybe not forever, but it will at least take care of the problems in your lifetime....

[Lidless]

What on earth did they drop into the Iceland one?

[River]

The pizza they serve at the biophysics student seminars every other Monday.

[Padme]

You'd think Hobbits would make a good pizza.

[River]

It's not a bad idea even if it can't save the world all on its own.

None of these ideas can save the world all on its own. Sometimes I wonder whether all our ideas put together, with the entire human population participating, can save the world.

I think we've screwed up big time.

So do I. In fact, I think that any effort made now is too little too late as far as climate change goes, though if we're lucky I'm wrong. But there are other reasons to move away from burning non-renewables for energy.

[Primula Baggins]

We can at least stop accelerating the disaster.

[Frelga]

Warmer Nights Threaten India's Rice Production

This development could have a far-reaching impact on the yield of rice, causing a shortfall in an important staple crop in a crowded country already grappling with food security and inflationary issues, said Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, India.
...
"Every 1-degree-Celsius increase in nighttime temperature led a 10 percent reduction in yield," said Kenneth Cassman, a professor of agronomy at the University of Nebraska and a co-author in the IRRI project.