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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:01 pm 
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It seems unlikely that this Graham-Cassidy bill will have enough votes to pass, but we'll see. Arizona's GOP Governor Doug Ducey has endorsed the bill in an apparent effort to get McCain to vote for it, but McCain is still being noncommittal. Neither Collins nor Murkowski, the other two GOP senators who voted against the "skinny" repeal have stated a position on this bill, but it is hard for me to imagine either of them voting for it. And Rand Paul has stated that he is a definite no, because it doesn't go far enough in repealing the ACA. Assuming that he is not just posturing to try to get concessions, and that I am correct about Collins and Murkowski, the bill would fail regardless of what McCain would do. Moreover, there are other GOP senators who voted for the skinny repeal with the understanding that it would never become law and they would have an opportunity to vote for a different "better" bill after conferencing with the House that are likely to have doubts about this bill. Plus, they only have until the end of this month to try to pass it this year with a simple majority using budget reconciliation.

Still, it is better to be vigilant than complacent.

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:06 pm 
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Nate Silver tweeted that this bill has a chance of passing but I haven't read the linked 538 writeup.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... -this-time

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:17 pm 
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The write-up, by Perry Bacon, has a lot of good analysis, but the bottom-line is that he says that despite the fact that Paul says he is a definite no, it is questionable whether he would actually cast the decisive vote (e.g., the one vote that prevents them from getting to 50) that "saves" ObamaCare. And despite McCain's deep friendship with Graham and the backing of Ducey, everything that McCain said was why he voted against the previous repeal effort is equally true about this one, with the added factor that exactly the type of bi-partisan work to improve the ACA that he called for has been going on at the same time this bill is being pushed by the GOP only. He would have to completely reverse everything he said. I find it hard to picture him doing that at this juncture. Still, Silver is right, they could succeed.

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:52 pm 
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McCain said very firmly that he wants regular process. I hope that means no.

Also, this Twitter thread, in which a self-described Sassy Gay Republican learns why healthy people need health insurance.

https://twitter.com/BillyArmagh/status/ ... 5264324608

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‘There’s no greys, only white that’s got grubby. I’m surprised you don’t know that. And sin, young man, is when you treat people as things. Including yourself. That’s what sin is.’
‘It’s a lot more complicated than that -’
‘No. It ain’t. When people say things are a lot more complicated than that, they means they’re getting worried that they won’t like the truth. People as things, that’s where it starts.’
Terry Pratchett, Carpe Jugulum


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:33 pm 
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He seems to mean it, but he also has made it clear that his friendship with Graham is very important to him. I'm still unsure about him. The other wildcard is Murkowski, as apparently McConnell, Cassidy and Graham have been trying to somehow sweeten the pot for Alaska to make it more appealing for her to vote yes. If both McCain and Murkowski voted yes, it looks like there is a good chance that it would pass, as the only other ones that seem clearly to be in the no column are Collins and Paul (and as Perry Bacon wrote at 538, it questionable whether Paul would really cast the decisive vote to "save" ObamaCare). This one is really going to go down to the wire. Again.

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:17 pm 
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I don’t have a heart condition, but I’m feeling one coming on. :x

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:30 pm 
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MURKOWSKI 202-224-6665
COLLINS 202-224-2523
MCCAIN 202-224-2235
HELLER 202-224-6244
CAPITO 202-224-6472
https://t.co/MG3HfzSgd8

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‘There’s no greys, only white that’s got grubby. I’m surprised you don’t know that. And sin, young man, is when you treat people as things. Including yourself. That’s what sin is.’
‘It’s a lot more complicated than that -’
‘No. It ain’t. When people say things are a lot more complicated than that, they means they’re getting worried that they won’t like the truth. People as things, that’s where it starts.’
Terry Pratchett, Carpe Jugulum


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:24 pm 
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Frelga wrote:
Also, this Twitter thread, in which a self-described Sassy Gay Republican learns why healthy people need health insurance.

https://twitter.com/BillyArmagh/status/ ... 5264324608


Now that is funny! And ironic, too... :D

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:02 am 
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Unfortunately, it appears that the whole thing might be a clever scam, because he asks for money to pay his bills after putting up a sequence of posts that guaranteed maximum reach.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:14 am 
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But minimum sympathy.

ETA: so the bill authors are trying to court Murkowski by exempting Alaska from the bill's provisions.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/2 ... eal-242978

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‘There’s no greys, only white that’s got grubby. I’m surprised you don’t know that. And sin, young man, is when you treat people as things. Including yourself. That’s what sin is.’
‘It’s a lot more complicated than that -’
‘No. It ain’t. When people say things are a lot more complicated than that, they means they’re getting worried that they won’t like the truth. People as things, that’s where it starts.’
Terry Pratchett, Carpe Jugulum


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:01 pm 
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Frelga wrote:
But minimum sympathy.

ETA: so the bill authors are trying to court Murkowski by exempting Alaska from the bill's provisions.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/2 ... eal-242978


You really CAN'T make this stuff up.

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:11 pm 
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Of course she will never notice that she could achieve the same objective without trashing the U.S. health care system simply by voting no. . . .

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:14 pm 
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JOHN McCAIN IS VOTING NO.

Quote:
McCain says he will vote ‘no’ on Cassidy-Graham bill, dealing potentially decisive blow to the health-care repeal effort
By Washington Post Staff September 22 at 2:03 PM
In a lengthy written statement, Sen. John McCain said he "cannot in good conscience" vote for the proposal from Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), which GOP leaders have been aiming to bring to the Senate floor next week.

"I believe we could do better working together, Republicans and Democrats, and have not yet really tried. Nor could I support it without knowing how much it will cost, how it will effect insurance premiums, and how many people will be helped or hurt by it," said McCain.

Link

*breathes into a paper bag*

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:22 pm 
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Primula Baggins wrote:
JOHN McCAIN IS VOTING NO.

Quote:
McCain says he will vote ‘no’ on Cassidy-Graham bill, dealing potentially decisive blow to the health-care repeal effort
By Washington Post Staff September 22 at 2:03 PM
In a lengthy written statement, Sen. John McCain said he "cannot in good conscience" vote for the proposal from Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), which GOP leaders have been aiming to bring to the Senate floor next week.

"I believe we could do better working together, Republicans and Democrats, and have not yet really tried. Nor could I support it without knowing how much it will cost, how it will effect insurance premiums, and how many people will be helped or hurt by it," said McCain.

Link

*breathes into a paper bag*


YES!! Finally, a voice of reason in the Republican ranks! :clap:

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When the night has been too lonely, and the road has been too long,
And you think that love is only for the lucky and the strong,
Just remember in the winter far beneath the bitter snows,
Lies the seed, that with the sun's love, in the spring becomes The Rose.


Last edited by Sunsilver on Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:43 pm 
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There still needs to be one more no to kill it outright, but Susan Collins already said today that she is definitely leaning no. This gives her cover to announce she's going to do it.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:46 pm 
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It's not over yet, though that certainly makes it harder. Even if McCain holds to his word (likely but not guaranteed given that the bill is sponsored by his best friend), and Collins also moves to a firm no, they could still potentially win over Paul and Murkowski and pass this disaster of a bill. I don't think it is likely, but I still don't think it is impossible.

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:20 pm 
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No, it isn't impossible, but it's now much less likely than it was when we all got up this morning. I'll take it.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:35 pm 
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Me too! :)

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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:29 pm 
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Collins is "leaning" no. Whatever that means.

I feel like a campaign of emailing her the video of the spontaneous applause she got at the airport after the last vote would be helpful right now.

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‘There’s no greys, only white that’s got grubby. I’m surprised you don’t know that. And sin, young man, is when you treat people as things. Including yourself. That’s what sin is.’
‘It’s a lot more complicated than that -’
‘No. It ain’t. When people say things are a lot more complicated than that, they means they’re getting worried that they won’t like the truth. People as things, that’s where it starts.’
Terry Pratchett, Carpe Jugulum


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 Post subject: Re: Health Care Reform
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:34 pm 
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I think people are already on it. I've also seen photos of Lisa Murkowski getting delighted hugs when she stepped off the plane in Alaska.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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