Canadian and NZ elections

[Túrin Turambar]

Two days out, polls seem to be turning again. Basically, the major shift in support over the whole campaign seems to have been from the Liberals to the Greens. That’s bad news for the Liberals, although how bad depends on where the actual votes that have shifted are.

And I’m still not sure how close the Conservatives are to the breakthrough in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Provinces they need to get a majority, but all the projections seem to suggest that they’ll fall a little short.

[Túrin Turambar]

And there you have it, a new Conservative Minority Government with 144-odd seats and 37% of the vote - a better result than the recent opinion polls suggested.

That said, I doubt that the Government will have the same opportunity to make these sorts of gains at their next attempt at re-election. We probably won’t be seeing a Conservative majority under Stephen Harper.

And Stephane Dion is probably finished.

[Túrin Turambar]

Looking over it, there hasn’t been so much a shift to the Conservatives as away from the Liberals. The Conservatives only gained a little over a point from 2006, but the Liberals lost 4% in total. In some races, the bleeding of Liberal support to the NDP and Greens would have pulled Conservative candidates over the line – the result of a first-past-the-post electoral system. The Liberal situation is actually worse that the Conservative minority would suggest – they’ve largely been confined to Yukon, the inner eastern cities and Newfoundland and Labrador. The Bloc and NDP hold more seats between them than the Liberals do.

I think that Harper was denied a majority for three reasons:

1) First and foremost, he was seen as not acting in response to the economic crisis. Admittedly, he didn’t have that much he could have done, but I think some voters would have found some sort of decisive response reassuring.

2) The Bloc continues to sit on ridings in Quebec that would otherwise have voted Conservative in a straight Liberal-Conservative race.

3) Conservative Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams, who enjoys massive approval ratings, campaigned against the Government in his province, causing the Conservatives to lose all of their seats there.

[vison]

I meant to tell you guys this before. In our riding we had a Green, an NDP, a Liberal, a Conservative - and then we had the Marijuana party. The marijuana guy has stood in several elections and if I remember I will check the local paper and see how many votes he got. He's a fruitcake, this guy. He's been arrested for having a grow-op, but his neighbours were more upset by his messy front yard than anything else.

His campaign posters feature a picture of Uncle Sam (yes, the American icon) and in Sam's hand there is a puppet manipulator, you know, one of those cross-shaped things with strings hanging down? Then there is a picture of the Two Towers and the line "9/11 was an inside job" and then a picture of a marijuana leaf and then, at the bottom, this assertion: Parks are for Kids!!!

So there you are. Just how these interesting items can be considered as being part and parcel of anything is quite beyond me. I had intended to take a picture of one of his signs, but I forgot.

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

Bad News for War Resisters

For those from the U.S. seeking sanctuary from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan the reelection of Stephen Harper as prime minister of Canada was bad news (not that the past several months have been any better when Harper’s Conservative Party had a smaller minority in Parliament). Harper’s gains in the election mean that he will continue to seek the deportation of U.S. military resisters as he attempts to please George Bush.

[Primula Baggins]

What resisters? We don't have a draft.

Do you mean people trying to escape redeployment?

[Lurker]

Yes. They don't want to be redeployed.
I signed the petition to have them stay in Canada while I was in Toronto for business. I think they were told to leave the country before the end of the month.

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

At least he's not the PM who deported Steve Kubby.

[Túrin Turambar]

Moving right along, NZ goes to the polls tommorrow. There has been some concern among National Party supporters that, while they'll certainly win far more votes than Labour they won't be able to win enough seats under the MMP electoral system to win office. This article in the NZ Herald should be good news for them:

Latest polls point to a National-led government

6:58PM Thursday Nov 06, 2008

Election '08

* Scuffles as Key arrives in Palmerston
* Which way will Auckland Central go?

Political Polls

* Final poll gives it to Key - and his allies
* 'Don't-know' votes still there to fight for

Two opinion polls out tonight signal a National-led government is on the cards after election day.

A One News Colmar Brunton Poll and TV3's TNS Poll both have National with a respective 13 point lead and 12 point lead over Labour - two days from the election.

National has more than 45 percent support in both polls, and would have the numbers, with support from ACT and United Future, to form a government.

Both polls have Labour at 35 percent and below.

With New Zealand First failing to make the five percent MMP threshold, the figures show Labour unable to muster the numbers to take the Treasury benches.

The One News Colmar Brunton Poll showed National would have the numbers to govern even without the Maori Party - who are still being labelled as the kingmakers in this election.

However Labour would lack the numbers necessary, even if it formed a coalition with the Greens, the Progressives and the Maori Party.

The TV3 TNS Poll saw National up 1 per cent with 46 per cent support and Labour down 4.3 per cent on 33.1 per cent.

John Key was the preferred Prime Minister on 36.4 per cent, with Helen Clark on 34.2 per cent.

Both polls showed continued support for the Green Party on 9 per cent.

link

[Túrin Turambar]

9:27pm: Counting has been going on in NZ for about three hours, and National Party supporters are already breaking out the champange. It seems that the NZ First vote is sliding, ACT is likely to retain their seat, but the Progressives are in trouble in their one seat.

9:34pm: The Nationals are down to 46.7 with 56% counted, so the prospect of a majority government is getting slimmer. Australian psephologist Antony Green is still predicting seats going 45-35 to the Nationals. There’s been cheering at the National Party headquarters as it looks like their candidate will defeat NZ First leader Winston Peters in his own seat.

9:46: Current projections suggest that there’ll be an overhang of 2, so 61 seats will be needed for a majority. The Nationals are looking to win 60 (although that number is declining) and ACT 5, so a National-ACT Coalition Government is looking likely. National lead is holding at 45-33, Labour is in trouble in the provincial cities, and NZ First is facing extinction.

10:10: Nationals are expected to win 58 seats, ACT 4 or 5. It now seems certain that Labour has been defeated and that the Nationals and ACT will form Government. John Key is New Zealand's new Prime Minister - you heard it here first!

11:07: Helen Clark has called John Key to concede defeat.

[axordil]

The NYT was reporting on the election, and the story made it sound as if the Nationals had more or less co-opted much of Labour's platform...or at least that's what Labour was saying. Do you think that accurate at all, L_M? It reminds me a bit of the DLC taking up what had been GOP causes in the 90s here.

Correction--it was the AP reporting, not the NYT.

[Túrin Turambar]

The NYT was reporting on the election, and the story made it sound as if the Nationals had more or less co-opted much of Labour's platform...or at least that's what Labour was saying. Do you think that accurate at all, L_M? It reminds me a bit of the DLC taking up what had been GOP causes in the 90s here.

John Key is more centrist than his predecessor, Don Brash. And like all clever oppositions who are hoping to win Government, the Nationals didn't release all that much policy and kept their promises fairly vague. The only thing that they were really pushing to my knowledge was tax cuts.

Admittedly, I'm only a fairly casual observer of NZ politics, so I'm not that familiar with the party platforms.

[Túrin Turambar]

From what I've been reading of the wash-up today, Ap is basically correct - the Nationals kept all of the popular parts of Labour's agenda. Whether they'll be able to follow through with them through the financial crisis and with their majority depending on the support of the far more conservative ACT is another question.

Some other points:

1. What’s interesting about this election is that, unlike the recent elections in Australia and the U.S. that I’ve followed so closely, it was a genuine thumping. The swing against Labour was over 7%. The severity of the loss was masked by NZ’s MMP system – had New Zealand used straight first-past-the-post voting in single-member districts like the British House of Commons and the American House of Representatives, then the Nationals would have won 41 seats to Labour’s 21 (with the minors on . As it stands, National made a clean sweep of the rural electorates, including the traditionally Labour-voting areas on the west coast, and even managed to win Central Auckland.

2. That said, John Key seems to be one of the most boring leaders in the western world, an antipodean Stephen Harper minus the sweater vest. As far as I can tell from his bio, he was some sort of accountant. That probably makes him inoffensive, though, as he comes across as fairly well presented I can understand how he won so much support.

3. The election seemed very bitter from where I was sitting. Key was positively crowing in his victory speech, barely holding back from going the full Paul Keating and gleefully sinking the boot into his defeated opponent. For her part, Clark was invoking the spectre of the achievements of her administration being ‘burned on the bonfire of right-wing Government’. It sounds like something she’d say to fire up her supporters before the election, not while conceding defeat.

[axordil]

Thanks, L_M.

[Túrin Turambar]

I’m surprised there hasn’t been any mention of the serious political standoff brewing in Canada at the moment. The Bloc Quebecois seems to be about to withdraw its support for the Conservatives over their alleged mishandling of the economic crisis and are rumoured to be preparing to form a Coalition Government with the Liberals and NDP. This will make Stephane Dion Prime Minister only a few months out from his fairly decisive electoral defeat.

It’s starting to look like it could be Constitutional crisis. It now seems possible, even likely, that the Government will be defeated on the floor of the House when Parliament next meets on December 8. Stephen Harper may therefore ask Governor-General Michaëlle Jean to prorogue Parliament until next year to give him time to resolve the crisis. But can the G-G prorogue the Parliament on the advice of a Prime Minister who may no longer enjoy the support of the House of Commons?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Stay tuned for the next episode of "How Canada Turns".

Seriously, I find the whole situation fascinating, but I have little to say about it. To be honest, it makes me feel a little better about the stability of our system. At least we are reasonable sure we know who the head of the government will be for at least the next 4 years.

[Primula Baggins]

A remark from some blog entry somewhere: "Ah, Canada. Even your coups are polite!"

I do think political junkies here, some of them anyway, are following this. I just haven't had time to acquire enough of an understanding of what's happening or might happen.

[Túrin Turambar]

Parliament has been prorouged until January. Harper is safe for the time being.

[vison]

My opinion of S. Harper was never very high and it certainly plummeted during this farce of a crisis.

He ought to resign, but I bet he won't.

We shall see what transpires over the Christmas season. Will the spirit of good will permeate the various parties?

Ha.

[axordil]

I think Harper is trying to buy time. I don't think he'll be able to sell it when the time comes.