The Obama Phenomenon and the 2008 Presidential Campaign

[Voronwë the Faithful]

There is nothing in the constitution that says that the Vice Pesident needs to be a citizen born in the U.S., nor is there any case law interpreting the question, because it has never come up before. As far as I can see, it would be legal; it would just mean that the Speaker of the House (Nancy Pelosi!) would be first in line to become President. Of course, many people would argue that the prime role of the Vice President is to be the stand-in if something happened to the President. But he certainly would add some serious celebrity to the ticket, and they are close. Probably wouldn't happen, I agree.

It seems to me that Bloomberg would take more votes from the Democratic nominee.

Why do you say that? (I don't necessarily disagree, but I'd like to know your reasons, since Bloomberg has been, in order, a Democrat, a Republican, and an Independent.)

[axordil]

I think Bloomie's effect would depend on the candidates. He might well indeed pull indy votes away from Obama, but not so much from Hilary, because she wouldn't have them in the first place. The same sort of calculus exists for some of the GOP contenders: McCain would lose some indy votes to him, perhaps, but not Huckabee, same reason as Clinton. His effect on a Romney nomination I'm less sure of, although he might bleed off some coastal old school GOP votes from Mitt. Both of them.

[Cerin]

Of course, many people would argue that the prime role of the Vice President is to be the stand-in if something happened to the President.

I think the primary raison d'etre for the existence of the office of Vice President is indeed to have someone fit to take over in the event the President is incapacitated. For that reason, I think it is contrary to the Constitution at least in spirit, if not in letter, for someone who can't be President to become Vice-President. I suppose it would make for interesting arguments if someone legally challenged the notion.

As for Bloomberg, my understanding is that he is too liberal to appeal to most Republicans. If McCain were the nominee, I would think those dissatisfied with McCain would also find Bloomberg unappealing. If Romney, Guiliani or Huckabee were the nominee and were considered too conservative by more liberal Republicans and independents, then I could see them turning to Bloomberg. But with the Democrats, all those people unable to vote for a woman and who feel queasy about Hillary for other reasons would turn to Bloomburg, and if Obama were the nominee, all those people who are unable to vote for a man of color or who think Obama too inexperienced would turn to Bloomberg. I think a Bloomberg run would be a disaster (in that it would guarantee another Republican president).

[solicitr]

Scwarzenegger can't. The Constitution's natural-born clause applies to both offices.

Interestingly, according to one interpretation of the clause (which has never yet been an issue), neither Romney nor McCain can be President, since they were born outside the US! (Romney (Mexico) definitely outside, McCain (Panama Canal Zone) in a US Territory).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

Where does it say that it applies to both offices?

[Primula Baggins]

The Twelfth Amendment:

. . . no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

What do I know?

[solicitr]

He might well indeed pull indy votes away from Obama, but not so much from Hilary, because she wouldn't have them in the first place.

On the other hand, Bloomberg would be strongest in New York, presumably Hillary's festung.

[axordil]

I would normally agree, except that I'm not sure how deep Hilary support in NY really is. 2006 was a bad time to be a GOP candidate in a lot of places, NY no exception, but if Giuliani had actually run against her? It would have been interesting.

I guess I would put it this way: the right GOP candidate plus Bloomberg could probably take NY from Hilary. But I don't know that the WRONG GOP candidate plus Bloomberg couldn't do it too.

[Primula Baggins]

What do I know?

More than I do. I just checked Wikipedia. It can produce the most amazing illusion of being well informed.

[solicitr]

The 12th was the amendment that altered the original Presidential system, under which the VP was the guy who finished second. Obviously under that scheme the VP by definition qualified to be president. They included Prim's clause just to make sure nothing changed.

***************

It is interesting to consider, though: on a strict reading, 'natural-born' means 'born in the United States (including of course the British colonies that became the US). Children born to American parents overseas are automatically citizens by virtue of statute- but that may not be the same as 'natural-born' in the Constitutional sense.

Although, seriously: would any hypothetical loser to McCain stoop so low as to demand that the judiciary disqualify him?

[Frelga]

Although, seriously: would any hypothetical loser to McCain stoop so low as to demand that the judiciary disqualify him?

That's a rhetorical question, right?

CA is open primary and I am still undecided which Democratic candidate to vote for. I'm the coveted Independent, although it will be another decade before I even consider voting for a Republican president.

Obama has the charisma, which must never be underestimated in a leader, media-fest or not. And he is pure as organic free-trade chocolate where political dirt is concerned. What I want to know is, is he pure because he never got the chance to get into the dirt? Has he been tempted and refused The Ring? The media is no help, it repeats what he said, and doesn't tell me what he has done. The precious few substantial articles that I've seen support his image as a principled man who is able to work with his opponents and get the job done, and certainly his conduct in this campaign has been the most appealing. Is that enough?

Clinton I have no problem with. She may not be pure, but I can live with her failings. And I think that no matter who is at the helm we are in for a tough decade. At least I would like to have the comic relief of Bill Clinton as the First Gentleman through it.

Or maybe I'll just go for the Republican Primary and vote McCain.

[Cerin]

Or maybe I'll just go for the Republican Primary and vote McCain.

Are you serious? If so, could you explain your reasoning there? It sounds like you don't want a Republican president, but McCain seems to be the Republican most likely to beat a Democrat.

[Faramond]

Now, see, there are a lot of Republicans who don't consider McCain a real Republican, so maybe voting for McCain helps ensure that we won't have a Republican president.

If one really wants to sow mischief for the GOP, one should vote for Romney. It's always bad for a party when their nominee is a lying weasel. I suppose I should be more decorous, though. I doubt I would call Romney a "lying weasel" to his face, so perhaps I shouldn't say so here. It's just that those words get right to the point.

Okay, so I know none of the Democrats here will buy that McCain is a Republican. I wouldn't seriously say he wasn't. Remember all the wacky rumors in '04 about McCain being Kerry's running mate, though? Those were about as goofy as, say, the 2000 Dem VP nominee endorsing a Republican in 2008. I guess Lieberman just lost his mind, huh? He certainly did seem to tack to the right. Maybe it's some sort of cosmic effect linked to Al Gore's beard.

I wonder about Obama --- would his reputation of being able to work with the opposition party in his state carry over to national politics better than Bush's similar reputation did? It would almost have to, I guess, given how much Democrats loathe Bush, but working with a minority opposition at the state level is so much different from working with a much stronger and more ideologically distant opposition at the national level.

[axordil]

The difference lies more in the political structures of TX and IL. TX has a relatively weak Governor, in terms of actual duties of the job. Illinois doesn't. IL politics is as much (if not more) about Chicagoland vs. the rest of the state as it is Dem. vs. GOP. TX--not sure about geographical splits there, except that Austin is basically an enclave.

[Frelga]

Or maybe I'll just go for the Republican Primary and vote McCain.

Are you serious? If so, could you explain your reasoning there? It sounds like you don't want a Republican president, but McCain seems to be the Republican most likely to beat a Democrat.

I'm honestly not sure if I'm serious. I just feel that there is not enough trustworthy information to pick Obama vs. Clinton. Among Republicans, I know Huckabee scares me and Romney isn't much better.

The Democrats were so good at losing these past two elections that at the least I would like to have a Republican candidate I feel I can survive.

Okay, so I know none of the Democrats here will buy that McCain is a Republican.

You mean ISN'T a Republican, right? Or did I misunderstand your meaning?

[Túrin Turambar]

Dennis Kucinich has quit.

[Faramond]

Or maybe I'll just go for the Republican Primary and vote McCain.

Are you serious? If so, could you explain your reasoning there? It sounds like you don't want a Republican president, but McCain seems to be the Republican most likely to beat a Democrat.

I'm honestly not sure if I'm serious. I just feel that there is not enough trustworthy information to pick Obama vs. Clinton. Among Republicans, I know Huckabee scares me and Romney isn't much better.

The Democrats were so good at losing these past two elections that at the least I would like to have a Republican candidate I feel I can survive.

Okay, so I know none of the Democrats here will buy that McCain is a Republican.

You mean ISN'T a Republican, right? Or did I misunderstand your meaning?

Yes, I left out the "not"!

[vison]

Obviously no one who wants a Democratic president would vote for John McCain. He might not be a "real" Republican, but if he's the nominee, he's Republican enough for the power structure, and he will owe them his allegiance and as a Republican will have to toe the party line.

Obama might be "untried", but so what? He's got to be an improvement over Bush - whose "experience" amounted to what? He would never in a million years have been anything other than a coke-snorting playboy without his family connections. He was a dismal failure at everything he ever tried, with the possible exception of being governor of Texas. And that was due to his intelligence, hard work, capability, etc?

[axordil]

Obama won big in SC--winning with over 50%, an honest majority. The question now becomes how long Edwards (who came in third in a contest he won in 2004) is going to hang on in an effort to have some pull at the convention, because that's got to be the only reason for him to stay in.

The demographic breakdowns are going to be very interesting.