The 2008 Presidential Campaign: What Happened and Why?

[Primula Baggins]

I don't see the relevance of Obama's grades for admission when his achievements after getting in proved that he belonged there. Hal, your determination to belittle everything Obama has ever accomplished is forcing you to make some pretty absurd statements.

On a lighter note, a link I found through Making Light:

Campaign 2008 Viewed as the Worst D&D Campaign You Ever Played

I thought it was hilarious and not one-sided—it pretty much slams everyone. There is quite a bit of crude language.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

[hal thinks Obama is a big nothing who has fooled everyone he ever met along the way.

A couple of questions for you, Cerin, if you don't mind.

First of all, do you think that it would be accurate to say that this is not that far from your own opinion of Obama that you often expressed during the primary season? Maybe not a "big nothing" but certainly grossly under-qualified to be President, an intellectual lightweight who's success was almost entirely due to the media hyping him, and to his emotionally manipulating people into supporting him by using soaring, lofty -- yet ultimately empty -- rhetoric.

Secondly, the impression that I have gotten recently is that you have changed your opinion of him. Is that true? And if so, why, and in what way?

If you would rather not answer these questions, I would certainly understand, but they have been percolating in my mind for a while, and I am genuinely interested in your responses.

Thanks!

[Cenedril_Gildinaur]

Yes, I did turn on Palin. She had potential, but exposure to the McCain machine ...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Yes, I did turn on Palin. She had potential, but exposure to the McCain machine ...

Yet the complaint that you were expressing about is about something that dates from long before she was tapped to be McCain's running mate.

[ToshoftheWuffingas]

Sorry Alatar for including Cromwell. To tell the truth I am no great fan of him. Here he is seen as the defender of parliamentary representation against autocratic despotism. In Ireland he was a butcher. Even here he had to install a military dictatorship in order to stay in power and in the end the people loathed it. I included him as a citizen who found something profoundly wrong with his country but whose legacy left it better.

[sauronsfinger]

rasmussenreports.com is now reporting a shift of public opinion in the important swing states of Ohio and Florida. John McCain now is showing a 2 point lead in both states compared to a week ago when Obama had the lead.

[Cerin]

I'm happy to answer your questions, Voronwë.

First of all, do you think that it would be accurate to say that this is not that far from your own opinion of Obama that you often expressed during the primary season? Maybe not a "big nothing" but certainly grossly under-qualified to be President, an intellectual lightweight who's success was almost entirely due to the media hyping him, and to his emotionally manipulating people into supporting him by using soaring, lofty -- yet ultimately empty -- rhetoric.

There were several factors that affected my feelings about Obama.

- I was annoyed by what I perceived as the role of the celebrity-focused media in getting Obama in the position to make a Presidential run with so little government experience behind him.

- I thought he should have waited his turn, given his lack of experience (which would make him vulnerable as a candidate) and the fact that there were an array of highly experienced people willing to run

- I really hated what struck me as his vacuous, manipulative speeches from early in the primary campaign

Having said that, I'll admit to indulging in a bit of hyperbolic rhetoric myself, when venting my frustrations here. Certainly someone with Obama's academic achievements isn't an intellectual lightweight. I'd say rather that he was a political lightweight when compared to the other Democratic hopefuls.

I was impressed with the racism speech, and I was affected by reading the sermon that had inspired his book, and his comments pertaining to it. That gave me a glimpse of the substance behind the rhetoric that I'd found so unappealing early in the primary campaign. But the fact that I viewed him to be undeservedly in the position he was in at the same time that I was warming more and more to Sen. Clinton (who had paid her dues and more in my view), kept my anti-Obama feelings pretty high.

Secondly, the impression that I have gotten recently is that you have changed your opinion of him. Is that true? And if so, why, and in what way?

As recently as just after the conventions, my annoyance level was still very high. I was toying with the idea of voting for Nader, depending on what the polls showed for my state. But then McCain showed his colors by choosing Palin, and suddenly personal feelings seemed much less important. That effectively took care of my enthusiasm deficit where Obama was concerned. And of course, we've all watched the direction the campaign has taken, and the kinds of voters McCain-Palin are appealing to.

As far as my personal feelings for Obama now, I do respect his intellect. I am moved by his grace and dignity. I am impressed with his calm demeanor. There's a sense of comfort and confidence about him that makes me think he is someone who has come to terms with himself. He is by all accounts someone willing to listen to diverse opinions and surround himself with quality people. I'd say I'm liking him more and more, as those earlier speeches fade into the background. And I certainly have no trouble enthusiastically supporting him, given the alternative.

And speaking of alternatives, the Libertarian (Barr?) was on the NewsHour recently. He gave refreshingly straight answers, I'm sure since he doesn't have to walk on eggshells since he has nothing to lose. It doesn't seem to me that with Palin on the scene, he will get any of the more conservative vote. So I would think he might hurt Obama more, say with those more independent-minded voters who aren't quite sold on voting for a person of color, etc.

[Dave_LF]

rasmussenreports.com is now reporting a shift of public opinion in the important swing states of Ohio and Florida. John McCain now is showing a 2 point lead in both states compared to a week ago when Obama had the lead.

That was expected (by me at least). I don't think Obama can win either of these states if they're close (which is why I didn't include them in his total in the psychic prediction thread). Were I them, I'd focus on locking down Colorado and Virginia and distribute what was left among North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio.

[Primula Baggins]

They have enough money to continue their efforts pretty much everywhere. There are some states they aren't bothering with, Oregon among them. But I don't think they have to choose between Ohio or Florida and any of the other states you listed.

I voted last night. It felt good.

[sauronsfinger]

Maybe the one good thing about these tightening poll numbers is the effect it may have on Election Day turnout. A election in which "either candidate can win" should translate into a very high turnout since people will feel that there vote does count and can make a difference.

[Cerin]

Prim, what sort of voting system do you have? What is done with your vote until election day?

[Primula Baggins]

Oregon votes 100% by mail, though most people use the drop boxes that are permanently set up pretty much all over town. They're like mailboxes, but painted white.

We sign the outer envelope, and the elections people check the signature against our registration signature, then take out the inner envelope (which has no identifying marks) and add it to the pile. Ballots aren't opened and counted until Election Day, but the majority are in before then and they start counting in the morning, so we get pretty quick results once the polls close.

Counting is done in public. Ballots are optically scanned, but the paper ballots are kept in case of problems.

[halplm]

In its new cherry-picking tradition, Drudge is now posting that the Nickelodeon kids' poll has Obama up by only 2%. I love the smell of desperation in the morning.

Why do you dismiss the Kids vote? (not the same as a poll)

If anything it's arguably more accurate, as Kids are likely to vote like their parents, and not lie. Also the group is probably a more accurate sample than you'd get on a phone poll.

Then again, they had Kerry at 57% last time, so maybe not.

[Dave_LF]

I dismiss Drudge for cherry-picking whatever data he can find to make his case, including childrens' elections conducted by Nickelodeon. And even so, the best case he can make is that Obama's only a little ahead.

But since you mention the kids' vote, Obama won the Scholastic kids' vote, which has predicted all but two of the elections since 1940, by a landslide:
http://www2.scholastic.com/browse/artic ... id=3750501

[Cerin]

I think we should use Oregon as the national model.

[vison]

rasmussenreports.com is now reporting a shift of public opinion in the important swing states of Ohio and Florida. John McCain now is showing a 2 point lead in both states compared to a week ago when Obama had the lead.

Be of good cheer.

Some people say when it comes to Rasmussen they are +4 for the GOP, so discount accordingly.

I like Nate at 538. He predicted that Tampa Bay would win the ACLS and guess what? Anyway, he's a baseball geek, and no one knows numbers better than a baseball geek. He's "in the tank" for Obama, but his numbers are scrupulously tallied and so far, he's spot on.

Go, Tampa Bay!!!!

[halplm]

Hal has repeatedly and carefully laid out his thinking and logic as to why he believes Obama should release his grades (for instance).

What I see being repeatedly and carefully laid out are suspicions, frustrations, resentments and rationalizations. hal thinks Obama is a big nothing who has fooled everyone he ever met along the way. Even if Obama released his college transcripts and it were proven that he didn't enter Harvard by merit, so what? He proved himself to be extraordinary once he was in Harvard. And the Presidency of the Law Review wasn't gained on popularity, it was gained on recognition that Obama was unusually open to examining all sides of a question and wasn't bitterly entrenched in ideology as many of the partisans on the Review admit to have been.

Many have judged Obama to be of excellent character and intellect. We get that you don't agree, hal. We get it.

Actually, you obviously don't. I do not think Obama is a "big nothing." I think he is a great big SOMETHING... but that something is not the image he's put forth to try to get elected president.

Is that somethign good, bad? I don't know, but it seems likely it's not something that would allow him to get elected which is frightening.

In all likelihood if there's any truth to my oh so unallowed suspicions, this simply means he is even more liberal than he seems, if that's possible.

The reason I think this is important, is because people seem to see what they want to see in Obama, rather than actually know about him. This is not accidental, but very deliberate.

For example, this is why the campaign is so frightened of Joe the Plumber, because they do not want people to know his tax plan involves writing checks to people who don't pay taxes. They want everyone to think they're getting a tax break at the expense of the evil rich people. That's all they want people to think about his tax plan.


SF, I do not like that Palin raised taxes. However, I do not think she would do that on a national level. Alaska has weirdness with the oil companies. Of course, I've been fooled before.

Eru... what newspaper you read, and how you got into Harvard are hardly the same thing.

[Holbytla]

rasmussenreports.com is now reporting a shift of public opinion in the important swing states of Ohio and Florida. John McCain now is showing a 2 point lead in both states compared to a week ago when Obama had the lead.

Be of good cheer.

Some people say when it comes to Rasmussen they are +4 for the GOP, so discount accordingly.

I like Nate at 538. He predicted that Tampa Bay would win the ACLS and guess what? Anyway, he's a baseball geek, and no one knows numbers better than a baseball geek. He's "in the tank" for Obama, but his numbers are scrupulously tallied and so far, he's spot on.

Go, Tampa Bay!!!!

[vison]

Oh, dear. Boston fan, are we?

Well, so is my Tay. The gnashing of the teeth! The whining!!! The broken heart!!!!

So, I sez to him: "Suck it up, buttercup."

[Holbytla]

Buttercup, I'll give you buttercup.