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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:52 am 
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Hal, this article was in today's Boston Globe:

How McCain Can Pull it Off

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:59 am 
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Primula Baggins wrote:
Well, Obama just took Dixville Notch, NH, 15-6. But that isn't determinative; Bush won in '04 and Kerry took the state.

We'll see what we see, Hal. :) I do want to point out that a 4-point popular vote margin would probably preclude a loss in the electoral vote. But again, we'll see.

About a third of us have already voted, too.


Oh, I think if McCain wins, it will be despite a massive loss in popular vote, which is why I think there will be chaos.

As for the "third" that have voted already... I think that's going to be an interesting situation. I'm not sure how that will influence news organizations calling things. From what I can tell, all the information about that early vote is based on estimates by party insiders making estimates due to thier efforts to get out the vote. I don't personally think these figures are accurate, but who knows...

The only real hope I have for conservative victory... is that going into every election since '92, the expected result was dread for conservatives, and yet they have come out ahead every time except in '06.

What will be will be. I'm more worried about chaos due to irregularities than I am about any results...


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:02 am 
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JewelSong wrote:
Hal, this article was in today's Boston Globe:

How McCain Can Pull it Off


yes, I know. This isn't very farfetched for people that disbelieve the polls.

Even if McCain loses, the critical piece is the level of 60 in the senate. If the republicans can at least filibuster nightmarish legislation, then I'm not too concerned. If the Dems can do anything they want... then I feel we're in for a world of hurt... for two years anyway.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:21 pm 
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hal, why do you believe that the polls are massively distorted for Obama?

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 2:55 pm 
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I don't know where you get your early voting statistics, Hal, but the ones I'm talking about don't come from "party insiders," they come from the secretaries of state in the states with early voting. They aren't estimates, they're counts of ballots received.

As of Monday, 24.4 million people had voted; 57.3% were Democrats and 42.7% were Republicans.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:57 pm 
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yovargas wrote:
hal, why do you believe that the polls are massively distorted for Obama?


They over sample democrats to start with.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:12 pm 
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halplm wrote:
yovargas wrote:
hal, why do you believe that the polls are massively distorted for Obama?


They over sample democrats to start with.


But Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans this year.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:19 pm 
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Lord_Morningstar wrote:
halplm wrote:
yovargas wrote:
hal, why do you believe that the polls are massively distorted for Obama?


They over sample democrats to start with.


But Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans this year.


They generally do, and yet republicans still win, which means you shouldn't over sample for polls. You should just take what you get.


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:29 pm 
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I'm lost...

If there are simply more people registered as Democrats how do you scream sample bias when the polls reflect that reality?

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:45 pm 
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Also, "Republicans still win" may no longer apply.

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― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 10:58 pm 
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I suppose I should add that guessing has now closed.

And all this argument over predictions seems a bit odd when we'll know what's going down for sure in a few hours.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:20 am 
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halplm wrote:
My reasoning... that the polls are massively distorted for Obama, which pushes all swing states to basically even...


Seems not. :D

So who will win the big prize?

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:56 am 
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and now we know who won . . .

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2. We have many ways using technology to be in touch, yet the larger question is are we really connected or are we simply more in touch? There is a difference.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:53 am 
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yovargas wrote:
Man, I'd be really happy if my problem-child state of Florida went my way and went to Obama. :)

It did. :)

I've said it before and I'll say it again. It ended when Ohio got called.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:24 pm 
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It did end when Ohio got called. Everyone knew that. Me included.... ;)

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