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 Post subject: Election Predictions
PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:36 am 
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Now that the debates are over, there’s no more (scheduled) election-changing events between now and November 4. Therefore, it’s time to show off our psephological skills. Feel free to change your guesses between now and the election, so don’t be shy!

I always find the results of these little polls interesting in terms of how party support lines up with expectations.

I. Presidency

1. Who will win the Presidency?

2. What will be the margin of (a) the popular vote and (b) the electoral vote?

3. Which states will go for which candidates?

II. Senate

The Senate consists of 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats, making for an effective 51-49 Democratic majority. Up for election are the 33 Class 2 seats, elected in 2002, and two other seats in special elections.

The contested seats are those of Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi (both seats), Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming (both seats).

1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. Senate?

2. What will be its composition?

III. House of Representatives

The House consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans and 1 vacant seat, all up for election.

1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. House of Representatives?

2. What will be its composition?


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 4:10 pm 
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I. Presidency

1. Who will win the Presidency?
Barack Obama

2. What will be the margin of (a) the popular vote and (b) the electoral vote?
Obama 52% 304 electoral
McCain 47% 234 electoral


3. Which states will go for which candidates?
that is just too much darn work without a paycheck. I would say that Obama will win all the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico.. plus should pick up a couple from this group - Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and Nevada. Two would do it.

II. Senate

Dems should end up with 58 including Bernie Sanders of VT.
Reps with 42 including Lieberman joing the party


III. House of Representatives

Dems will gain 16 seats.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 6:05 pm 
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Or you could just google it:

http://mapmash.googlepages.com

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:22 pm 
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I'll give the presidential results a try, but I haven't been paying enough attention to the Congressional ones to predict anything there.

1. Who will win the Presidency?
Barack Obama

2. What will be the margin of (a) the popular vote and (b) the electoral vote?
(a) Obama by somewhere between 3 and 4%. Something like 50/47.
(b) The strongest Obama scenario I consider likely is 317/221. The weakest would be 286/252. If I have to pick one, it's 302/236 (see next).

3. Which states will go for which candidates?
Obama will get all the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.
He will probably get Nevada.
He might get North Carolina and/or Missouri.
He probably will not get either Ohio or Florida, though I'd say he has a better chance in Florida.

My "most likely scenario" from (2b) has Obama winning Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, and Missouri, and McCain winning Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

Caveat: Nevada and Colorado could go wonky due to early reporting of results from the east coast.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:33 am 
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Well I am going out on a limb here and wildly guessing. Sort of.
Obama 50%, McCain 49% and the rest split the remaining.
I took a screen capture for the rest of the questions.
Well except the senate. Kerry by a landslide and Shaheen winning NH.
I am guessing maybe Udall in CO. No clue about the rest.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:46 am 
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McCain won't get Nevada or New Hampshire, and he certainly won't get Colorado. It's not going to be that close. That's my prediction. We are two weeks out and the polls are starting to matter—and Obama is up by double digits in NBC/WSJ and Pew, both out today; he also gained in all the tracking polls but one.

Ruling out Saturdays, and a week from Wednesday when Obama's got that half-hour show on most of the networks, there are exactly ten news cycles left for McCain to make an impression that changes the minds of hundreds of thousands of Obama voters. (There aren't enough undecideds left even if McCain gets all of them.)

And, many people have already voted anyway.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:58 am 
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Are you answering LM's questionaire or rebutting mine? :P

You may be right about CO and NV, but I'm not so sure about NH. The only reason for that state to vote for Obama is they are utterly disenfrachised with McCain as a GOP pick or the GOP at large.

There are always surprises on both sides on an election. Obama will not get all of Hillary's constituents in NH.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:11 am 
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Well, the six top NH polls at 538, going back over the past four weeks, have Obama up by 9, 12, 8, 10, 7, and 7. Polls aren't perfect, but if a lot of them are saying about the same thing, it's reasonable to give them some weight. The 538 model has Obama up by more than 6 and gives him a 93% chance of carrying the state.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:12 am 
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How did the polls reflect the dem primary in NH?

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:16 am 
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I just checked 538 again and it's still looking awfully good for Obama.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:19 am 
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You guys stop derailing LM's thread and answer the poll.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:20 am 
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The polls were way off—I well remember. 538 was not around yet—I wonder what they would have predicted. The site got famous later on by predicting the Indiana and North Carolina Democratic primaries within 1 or 2% of the actual result, when the other pollsters were way off. They did it using the polling results but adjusting them demographically for what they thought would be the actual composition of the electorate and the actual turnout statistics. And they were dead on. Now they're saying Obama wins, and I trust them.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:31 am 
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Holbytla wrote:
You guys stop derailing LM's thread and answer the poll.


Yes, Muthurrrrr. :roll:

I have reason to believe that roughly this will happen, though I won't swear to any of the specifics, so there.

I. Presidency

1. Who will win the Presidency? Obama.

2. What will be the margin of (a) the popular vote and (b) the electoral vote? 51%–47.5%, and EVs Obama 338 to 364, McCain 174 to 200.

3. Which states will go for which candidates? Of the states that are close, Obama will take NV, CO, OH, VA, and FL, and might get MO and NC if the wind's blowing his way. McCain will win IN, and possibly MO and NC; beyond that there's have to be some kind of momentous shift that I don't foresee. Nothing else is really in play.

II. Senate

The Senate consists of 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats, making for an effective 51-49 Democratic majority. Up for election are the 33 Class 2 seats, elected in 2002, and two other seats in special elections.

The contested seats are those of Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi (both seats), Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming (both seats).

1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. Senate? Democrats.

2. What will be its composition? 57 Democrats, 2 independents, 41 Republicans

III. House of Representatives

The House consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans and 1 vacant seat, all up for election.

1. Which party (if any) will control the 111th U.S. House of Representatives? Democrats.

2. What will be its composition? 253 Democrats, 152 Republicans

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 8:35 am 
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Primula Baggins wrote:
2. What will be the margin of (a) the popular vote and (b) the electoral vote? 51%–47.5%, and EVs Obama 338 to 364, McCain 174 to 200.


I think that might be cheating ;).


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 2:18 pm 
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Well, if you want me to pick exact numbers, put me down for Obama 364, McCain 174.

If we win, do we get a painted plaster figurine of Thomas E. Dewey? :P

Edit: For the past 3 or 4 days, the election projection chart at 538.com has had a huge mode spike at 375 electoral votes for Obama. Today more than 1600 of 10,000 simulations came out at exactly 375.

So, um, I think I'm modifying my prediction to 375 Obama, 163 McCain.

This was posted at 9:38 PDT on Saturday, 25 October.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:13 pm 
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The Democrats just took a step closer to the magic 60 in the Senate. Alaskan senator Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, has just been convicted of seven counts of failing to disclose gifts to made to him by supporters. He already was locked in a difficult reelection campaign, and this verdict makes it far more likely that he will lose his seat to Anchorage mayor Mark Begich, the Democratic Party candidate.

I'm not predicting 60, but it is getting closer. If African-Americans vote in record numbers in Georgia and Mississippi, as seems likely, there is an outside chance the Democratic candidates in those races will prevail as well. That might be enough, particularly if they win Oregon, too.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:29 pm 
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What if Stevens wins? Will he be able to serve?


edit spelling

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Last edited by Cerin on Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:41 pm 
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Does the Senate have any way to stop him taking his seat? I would think they would have some way to exclude a convicted felon.

He's 84 years old—if elected and if he served, be would be 90 at the end of his term. :shock:

I don't think he'll win, frankly.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:49 pm 
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Two-thirds of his fellow senators would need to vote to eject him from the Senate. I'm sure it will be a moot point, though, as I don't think there is any chance now that he will win.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:59 pm 
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Yes. It was pretty close before he was convicted.

I looked it up, too. Apparently the House has a rule preventing convicted felons from serving, but as you say, the Senate does not.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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