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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:52 pm 
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I wonder what affect, if any, the Giants victory will have on the NY primary. There is going to be a massive parade tomorrow. Will that lower voter turnout? If so, who would that help, Obama or Clinton? I suspect that it might help Obama, because his supporters are more enthusiastic, though perhaps less numerically. Or would it help Clinton, because female votes would be less likely to be football fans.

Or, as I suspect, am reaching too far?

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:53 pm 
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Besides, who knows? Maybe Oregon's primary in May will actually matter.


I think there is a good chance it will!

Speaking of that, my current back of the envelope projections of delegate pickups for the Democrats on Super Tuesday are as follows:

Clinton --- 1035
Obama --- 1009

I get these totals by guessing at a final vote breakdown in each state based on polls, then multiplying the percentage for each candidate by delegates available in the state.

In practice the delegate percentage won in a state won't necessarily match up with the percentage of total votes won in a state, but it should be fairly close, anyway. For example, I believe that in a congressional district with 4 delegates at stake, it wouldn't matter if Obama or Clinton won 55% of the vote in that district -- it would be split 2-2 regardless.

Some less populous states, such as Idaho and North Dakota, don't have polls available, so I have to just make something up based on regionally similar states. I have Clinton winning most of these poll-less states pretty handily. If that's wrong then Obama does even better.

Also a lot of these polls are probably a bit suspect. There are some wildly divergent polls for California right now. Given Obama's steady surge I'm going with a near 50-50 split in CA, which might be way off. Or might not. He's also nearly pulled even in New Jersey according to some polls.

Best case for Clinton is probably to do 100 delegates better than Obama Tuesday, which wouldn't be enough to knock him out, especially as he seems to gain votes nationwide with each passing day. Best case for Obama is probably to win a few more delegates than Clinton on Tuesday, win the California primary vote and become based on momentum the new frontrunner.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 11:33 pm 
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Faramond wrote:
Cerin wrote:
Perhaps the best thing I could do tomorrow would be to vote in the Republican primary, and vote for Romney, since he will probably be easier to defeat than McCain.


The best thing one can do is vote for the best candidate, for the candidate whose views you agree with, for the candidate you trust. I believe voting is a noble endeavor. Why turn it into a low, contemptible affair by deliberately sowing mischief, by turning one's vote into a hammer to destroy the integrity of an opposition contest? Fear and opportunism should not motivate our choices. What contempt one must have for the other voters of a contest that one insincerely votes in! They and their party are so wicked and stupid that I feel no prick of conscience at sneaking into their contest and trying to engineer what I believe is a favorable result for myself. It is crass to wish to engineer your opponent's contest to give your own party an advantage, and it is hopelessly cynical to at the same time forgo the chance to vote for the candidate in your own party that you think best. It's the sort of sentiment I would expect of Karl Rove.


Back when my father was a Republican and active in the party (his father was the chairman of the Republican party in the county they lived in), he was encouraged by the party to register as a Democrat so he could vote in the primary for the worst Democrat on the ticket. It’s an old trick, I don’t know if it was ever really successful but it was not considered dishonorable by many (no. my father didn’t do it, although he did run screaming from the Republican party many years ago).


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 11:50 pm 
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I understand that there is a difference of opinion on this. I just detest the idea. It seems so contrary to the ideal of democracy to me. I doubt mischief voting has ever really made a difference, though.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:21 am 
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I also doubt that mischief voting has any discernible effect. It would have to be organized on a grand scale.

There is no one left that I want to vote for. I could throw away my vote symbolically on Edwards, hoping it would register as a statement that I care about the issues he was voicing.

However, I believe the whole primary process deserves my contempt. The only people who have a chance are those with money and/or connections. The celebrity-obsessed infotainment media made sure no one heard about anyone but Obama and Clinton on the Democratic side. I treasure my right to vote, but our current system sucks.

So I could stay home, throw my vote away on a candidate who is no longer in the race, or cast it in the Republican race in the hopes it might matter.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:26 am 
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I agree that Edwards was marginalized beyond all reason, even in races where he had polling numbers that matched Obama's. The media as filter, whether you think they're left-wing or right-wing. They create a narrative and repeat it endlessly, mindlessly, even in the teeth of direct contradiction, until it comes true. :(

Apropos of that, Karl Rove is joining Fox News as a contributor. He starts tomorrow.

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― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:43 am 
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Still, in the right circumstances a candidate can break though. Look at Mike Huckabee, for example. He went from having little nation-wide recognition, few connections and almost no money to being the national GOP frontunner for a while. Everybody seems to love to blame the media when their favourite candidate fails to win any states and drops out (the Hunter supporters were especially bitter), but the fact remains that no other western country has such an in-depth candidate selection process as the United States. No-one else puts its candidates through debate after debate, or goes to so much effort to draw out where they stand on the issues.

Candidates like Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul had little media attention to start with, but were able to win some through hard work. John Edwards, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson had plenty of attention on them as well, but weren’t able to turn it into wins in primaries and caucuses. John McCain was ignored by the media through most of 2007, but was able to make a comeback. The media focuses on the most important candidates, and its up to the candidates to make themselves important.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 1:15 am 
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I very, very much agree, Lord M.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 2:05 am 
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The media focuses on the most important candidates, and its up to the candidates to make themselves important.


I think this is true--to a point. What the media thinks an important candidate looks like may not be the same as what you or I think, though. Always lurking under the surface is the essential frame of reference for large media--will it sell papers/push up ratings? And that's a knife that can cut in all sorts of ways.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 12:02 pm 
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On that note :D

Anyway, we should probably take this discussion back to the regular thread and leave this one for the technical issues.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 5:34 pm 
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I think I may have accidentally counted some superdelegates in with the state delegates in my Democrat totals. So confusing.

Anyway, Obama continues to surge in California, with the latest Zogby poll putting him up 13 points on Clinton. I just don't believe that. I don't! But, well, I do think Obama is going to win California now. Hillary and Barack appear headed toward a near split of the delegates, whatever the correct totals should be. My final prediction is for Obama to win a few more delegates than Clinton tonight.

My predictions for the Republicans are as follows:

McCain -- 645
Romney -- 331
Huckabee -- 118

I have Romney winning California narrowly, but McCain still picks up a lot of CA delegates since it goes by district. I also have McCain narrowly winning Tennessee and Georgia, which might not happen. But, it does appear that if McCain loses either of those two states it would be to Huckabee, not Romeny.

It should be an interesting night.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 6:54 pm 
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I read the same thing about California....should be interesting to see if the Kennedy has more pull in the Governors house ;)

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:29 pm 
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Just got back from voting. It felt good to vote for someone for president who I actually feel good about voting for, and who actually has a viable chance of winning.

It was interesting that Maria Shriver (Schwarzenegger's wife, and niece of JFK, for those who don't know) endorsed Obama. Apparently, it even took his own campaign by surprise. And Obama is so successful at bringing people together, he even was able to bring the Dead together. ;)

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:34 pm 
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Awesome, Voronwë! :D

I'm looking forward to watching the news tonight. I hope. :P

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― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:38 pm 
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*waits for skull avalanche*


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:40 pm 
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McCain backers resort to dirty tricks in WV

Okay, maybe not, but one could make that argument. On the first ballot of the West Virginia Republican state convention Romney led with about 41%, Huck had about 33%, and McCain had around 15%. ( Ron Paul didn't meet the threshold. ) Whoever gets a majority of votes in the convention wins 18 state delegates. So the McCain backers threw their support to Huck on the second ballot, and he squeaked over with 52% of the vote, and will take the 18 delegates. An annoying blow to Romney, to be sure, since he was so close to getting those delegates.

This is the sort of thing that goes on all the time at conventions and caucuses, so really it's probably less dirty tricks and more an argument against picking delegates with a convention. It does seem a bit unsavory, though one can also argue that most of those McCain backers probably prefer Huck to Mitt anyway.



Hey, Voronwë, doesn't your post belong in Obama Phenomenon? ;) :D I suppose you are a part of Obama's delegate math!


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 7:56 pm 
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Voronwë_the_Faithful wrote:
Just got back from voting. It felt good to vote for someone for president who I actually feel good about voting for, and who actually has a viable chance of winning.


Me too, actually, although we didn't vote for the same person. :)
(Although: I feel exhilarated about this Democratic primary process because I feel like someone with my political values really can't lose no matter what happens today (except in the practical sense that we lose if we pick someone who proves unelectable in November.) If Obama gets the nomination, I'll get involved with his campaign and feel great about it. In that sense, I feel as though I'm in a better (i.e. more fortunate) place than those Obama supporters that feel despondent about the possibility of the President Clintons, Part II. :D)

Quote:
It was interesting that Maria Shriver (Schwarzenegger's wife, and niece of JFK, for those who don't know) endorsed Obama. Apparently, it even took his own campaign by surprise. And Obama is so successful at bringing people together, he even was able to bring the Dead together. ;)


On the subject of major California endorsements, we should note that Hillary received endorsements from Gavin Newsom (SF Mayor), Antonio Villaraigosa (LA Mayor), Dianne Feinstein, and Ron Dellums (OAK Mayor). The NYT (which has also endorsed Clinton) had this to say on the matter.

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When, when the fire's at my feet again
And the vultures all start circling
They're whispering, "You're out of time,"
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:24 pm 
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This site is extremely useful as a quick reference (roll over any state to see recent poll results or primary results):

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The site also has news, compilations of polling data, and interesting analysis for both Presidential and Senate races.

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“There, peeping among the cloud-wrack above a dark tor high up in the mountains, Sam saw a white star twinkle for a while. The beauty of it smote his heart, as he looked up out of the forsaken land, and hope returned to him. For like a shaft, clear and cold, the thought pierced him that in the end the Shadow was only a small and passing thing: there was light and high beauty for ever beyond its reach.”
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:44 pm 
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Thanks Prim. I think I used that site in 2004. I've bookmarked it.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2008 9:21 pm 
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In that sense, I feel as though I'm in a better (i.e. more fortunate) place than those Obama supporters that feel despondent about the possibility of the President Clintons, Part II. )


Yes, yes you are. :D

I was betting someone today that I could name five women I would pick for the Democratic nomination before Hilary. I could, too, even I forgot one's name at the time. :oops: None have her name recognition, of course, but that's the point...

The off the top of my head list:

Gov. Napolitano of Arizona
Gov. Sebelius of Kansas
Gov. Gregoire of Washington
Sen. Boxer (NOT DINO Feinstein) of CA
Sen. McCaskill of MO

And knowing there's that kind of depth in the party makes me feel pretty good.


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