Delegate Mirth ( the end has come! )

Post by **solicitr** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:58 am

Clinton is showing stronger than I had hoped- she may come out on top by morning, although (thank goodness) the delegates are apportioned.

McCain sweeps the Northeast where GOPers tend moderate-nearly 200 winner-take-all delegates. The Southern states unsurprisingly are keeping Huckabee in play- but none of 'em have given a lead to Romney.

But there's still California.

Post by **solicitr** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:59 am

BTW, *I* like Feinstein. Of course that may be because she's a sort of cousin by marriage.

Post by **nerdanel** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:00 am

Clinton grabs Oklahoma as well, with 55 percent of the vote there.

Post by **solicitr** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:06 am

OK called for McCain (by CNN)- respectable win in the "Buckle of the Bible Belt."

And Romney pulls off a stunning upset in Utah- not.

Post by **Túrin Turambar** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:34 am

Can I suggest we end the discussion on results here and move it to the main campaign thread?

Post by **Faramond** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 4:45 am

Huckabee is winning a lot of southern states. If both he and Romney stay into the race until the end, I'm not sure if McCain can win a majority of the delegates.

I have a hard time seeing Huckabee throwing his support to Romney, if it comes to that at the convention. But who the heck really knows?

Post by **Cerin** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 6:14 am

McCain and Huckabee are having a lovefest; if Huckabee threw to anyone, it would be McCain, and he'd probably be the running mate. Imagine the hairpulling that would incite in the Limbaugh camp!

Post by **ToshoftheWuffingas** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:23 pm

I don't know if the question has been posed in another thread but what happens to the Republican delegates' votes if they have been assigned to Huckabee and he pulls out? Do they have a free choice to vote for another candidate, are their votes nullified or is there a mechanism to reassign their votes?
I mean it looks likely that Huckabee will pull out and I wonder what the consequence will be in terms of delegates.

Post by **Túrin Turambar** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 12:31 pm

They're free to change their vote, although I imagine they'll follow Huckabee's endorsement (if any).

Similiarly, if no one candidate has a majority at the first ballot at the convention, every delegate becomes free to vote for anyone.

Post by **Faramond** » Wed Feb 06, 2008 5:38 pm

I won't like Huckabee as McCain's running mate. I would like the part about it annoying Rush, though.

Typically when the nominee is known ahead of the conventions all of the delegates are released to vote for the winner, to create a show of unity.

Last night when I looked at the vote returns from the California congressional districts, McCain was leading Romney in all of them that had returns in. As of this morning almost all of those leads for McCain have held up. It looks like Romney will win only 3 or 4 of California's 53 congressional districts. Since the winner of each district takes 3 delegates, this means that Romney will only end up with 9 or 12 delegates from the entire state of California, to about 160 for McCain. ( The winner of the state takes 11 at-large delegates. ) So in effect California has been turned into a winner-takes-all state, and Romney's path to the nomination is even steeper than it appeared last night.

Post by **Faramond** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 10:28 pm

You know how economics is often called the dismal science? I think polling should be called the worthless science. Here are the latest numbers on the Dem race in Virginia:

InsiderAdvantage --- Clinton 52, Obama 37

SurveyUSA --- Obama 59, Clinton 39

That's right, one poll has Clinton up 15 and the other has Obama up 20.

edit: never mind --- the InsiderAdvantage poll was actually reported wrong earlier. It's reversed from what it should be. Still, the polls were really wrong about a lot of races last Tuesday.

Post by **yovargas** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:03 pm

As a Floridian, I'd be curious to compare the accuracy of these poll forecasts to the accuracy of meteorologists hurricane landing forecasts.

Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:10 pm

Obama has a very good chance of sweeping the next nine primaries/caucuses: the Lousiana primary and caucuses in Washington and Nebraska on Saturday, the Maine caucuses on Sunday, the D.C., Virginia and Maryland primaries on Tuesday, and the Hawaii caucusesand Wisconsin primaries on February 19. The question then becomes whether the momentum that he would gather would be enough to off-set Clinton's advantage in the big states of Ohio and Texas on March 4.

I think we should have a pretty good idea of where things are heading after that.

Maybe.

Post by **Faramond** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:19 pm

Momentum has been rather lacking in this campaign, hasn't it? I think a tie for Obama in Texas and Ohio would clinch the non-superdelegate non-FL non-MI delegate lead for him. I have a hard time seeing him win Texas, though. It's going to be another California for him, I think. Big expectations and big loss.

Post by **River** » Fri Feb 08, 2008 11:52 pm

Cerin wrote:McCain and Huckabee are having a lovefest; if Huckabee threw to anyone, it would be McCain, and he'd probably be the running mate. Imagine the hairpulling that would incite in the Limbaugh camp!

What would the far-righties do if that happened? Stay home?

Post by **Túrin Turambar** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:02 am

River wrote:
Cerin wrote:McCain and Huckabee are having a lovefest; if Huckabee threw to anyone, it would be McCain, and he'd probably be the running mate. Imagine the hairpulling that would incite in the Limbaugh camp!
What would the far-righties do if that happened? Stay home?

That's the big question.

Post by **Faramond** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:04 am

Huckabee is not going to be the Vice Presidential Candidate. It makes no sense. No need to get your hopes up, Democrats!

Post by **Primula Baggins** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:18 am

Darn.

He's so charming every time he's on the Colbert Report. . . .

Post by **nerdanel** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:42 am

I do not support Huckabee for Vice-President. After the South Carolina Democratic Party rejected Stephen Colbert's bid for President, I supported Huckabee for President based on his oft-repeated pledge that he would make Colbert his Vice-President no matter what. However, Huckabee as McCain's Vice-President leaves no room for Colbert on the ticket, which means I have to hold out for Obama-Colbert or Clinton-Colbert.

Post by **Primula Baggins** » Sat Feb 09, 2008 1:01 am

Ah, but my understanding is that in a McCain-Huckabee administration, Colbert would be in line for a juicy Cabinet post.

But then, I understand so little. . . .