TH: DOS Box Office Watch

[Smaug's voice]

Early BO no.s 2.8 mil in France up by 8% over AUJ from deadline.com

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That's good news, I suppose.

[Passdagas the Brown]

The French are a silly people.

[Smaug's voice]

Variety predicting the DOS Box Office.

http://variety.com/interstitial/?ref=ht ... 0945716%2F

Exhibitors and box office observers anticipate “Smaug” will match, at least, its predecessor’s $303 million domestic tally. The sequel also is expected to reach the $1 billion global total set by the first film.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Conflicting predictions about the North American domestic opening totals.

BoxofficeMojo predicts about $70 million, considerably lower than AUJ (and predicts a considerably lower final total.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3762&p=.htm

The Hollywood Reporter, in contrast, predicts that the film will come close to matching AUJ's $84 million domestic opening. However, because it will open in fewer places worldwide, it won't match the international opening weekend total. They do give encouraging figures for several countries that have already opened.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/b ... ion-665199

[axordil]

Weather is always a variable for December releases.

[Smaug's voice]

First off, I think DOS will earn less at the beginning because of the disappointment of AUJ (to the general masses anyway). But if it manages to get above the 70% mark on RT, and if I like this better than AUJ ( ) I am predicting more or less the same outcome. About 1.1-1.2 billion.
One can't ignore the fact that DOS seems to be more generic-audience friendly than any of the 4 previous movies.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Midnight take in the North American market is down considerably from last year:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/b ... aug-665561

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Friday numbers are somewhat better than the midnight take. $31.145 million, which while still considerably less than AUJ's $37.1 million is less of reduction than the midnight numbers. If this continues, the opening weekend is likely to not be too far behind AUJ's. With better reviews and potentially better word of mouth among the general public (despite the outrage in the Tolkien community), I could see it having better legs, and ending up equally or even exceeding AUJ in the NA domestic market. And there is every indication that the worldwide market will be just as strong as AUJ's if not stronger.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendel ... 1-million/

[sauronsfinger]

Weather is always a variable for December releases.

yup- Michigan is hit with a snowstorm today. It caused us to say lets do it another day.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Weekend Box Office: 'The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug' Scores Strong $73m

[Passdagas the Brown]

I don't know how much this matters in terms of Box Office, but it seems that a lot of the Tolkien fan community either hated DoS, disliked it for the most part, or feel indifferent about it, which may lead to fewer repeat viewings.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Hard to say. We should have a pretty good idea of what kind of legs it might have as soon as next weekend. And while the North American box office is starting out a little weaker than AUJ, there are indications that the worldwide market might be even stronger than it was for AUJ. So losses in the American box office may well be made up for elsewhere.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

A little surprised to see the film stay in No. 1 in North America for a second weekend, given the predictions that Anchorman II would trounce it. Still tracking about 15% behind the first one, so unless it has much better legs (doubtful given that it is already leaving many theaters), it probably will not do better than $250 million in that market. But it is doing very well internationally, and may well make up the difference and still hit or at least come very close to a billion dollars by the end. It will likely, once again, come down to China, although this time Japan is also delayed until February.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/box-off ... -to-watch/

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/interna ... cord-more/

[yovargas]

I was surprised by the weak hold. I expected the buzz of Smaug - films greatest dragon! - to get more people curious about it than AUJ.

[Smaug's voice]

Well I am not that surprised.
For one, It has tougher competition than AUJ last year for it's opening weeks.
And the weather, I hear, is bad over the US and some places at UK. Which didn't help either.


I think it should still gross around 0.9-1.0 billion. Two main factors I think will be:
~How many "fans" were so disappointed by AUJ that they didn't turn up for DoS.
~How many Tolkien-fans have been disappointed by all the changes such that they won't be having any repeat viewings at all.

And it is the later, I think, which should be the primary concern.

[Elentári]

Well I am not that surprised.
For one, It has tougher competition than AUJ last year for it's opening weeks.
And the weather, I hear, is bad over the US and some places at UK. Which didn't help either.


I think it should still gross around 0.9-1.0 billion. Two main factors I think will be:
~How many "fans" were so disappointed by AUJ that they didn't turn up for DoS.
~How many Tolkien-fans have been disappointed by all the changes such that they won't be having any repeat viewings at all.

And it is the later, I think, which should be the primary concern.

I think you're right... (and yes, the weather has been appalling here!) Last year everyone was hyped up to see Jackson's take on TH...this time, many who weren't impressed may not bother even on the strength of more positive reviews, plus I do agree that there may well be less repeat viewings anyway, since last year fans were keen to compare the different formats. This time round most know already which format they prefer and will just stick to that.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

The film keeps beating (limited) expectations, though, in North America, despite continued lower numbers than AUJ. Last weekend the prognosticators all predicted that it would finish second behind Anchorman 2, but it held on to the no. 1 spot. The same prognosticators predicted that The Wolf of Wall Street would win Christmas Day, but DoS still held on to No. 1. And it likely will still be No. 1 this coming weekend. I still don't think it will end up with more than $250 million in N.A., but it is nice to see it do better than people keep predicting. Maybe it will have better legs than AUJ (though I doubt the theaters will let it).

[JewelSong]

How many Tolkien-fans have been disappointed by all the changes such that they won't be having any repeat viewings at all.

Well, that's me, for one. I am more disappointed that my interest in the movie is so "meh" that I don't even feel compelled to talk about it. I didn't care enough.

Oh, well...

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Did you see AUJ more than once in the cinema?