Desolation of Smaug predictions

[Passdagas the Brown]

Just talking you off that ledger by sharing the opinion of someone I know you respect.

In addition to his obvious wisdom, he's also a very good-looking man.

[Smaug's voice]

It now has a higher MetaCritic score (up to 74) than an RT score (down to 73). That is unheard of.

Wow, yeah, I can't recall ever seeing that before.

Jackson doesn't have a lyrical bone in his body...

But what leavens this frustration for me is that there are some scenes "shot through" PJ's canvas, which are wonderful and sometimes sublime. The FOTR prologue, the early scenes of Gandalf's cart shambling through the Shire, the reveal of Dwarrowdelf, Boromir's death, Frodo and Sam looking out over the Emyn Muil, Gandalf and the Balrog's plunge into the depths of Moria with that exquisite long shot of the deep lake, the Rohirrim on the plain, Éomer's confrontation with the three hunters, the glorious image of Meduseld, Theodred's funeral (my absolute favorite), Théoden lamenting at Theodred's grave as the sun begins to set, Gollum's end-of-TTT monologue, the lighting of the beacons (perfect), Gandalf riding out onto the Pelennor to drive away the Nazgûl with a shaft of white light (my single favorite shot across all three films), the eerily august glow as the forces of Mordor make their way into the outer rings of Minas Tirith killing as they go, the elemental beauty of Frodo and Sam on the slopes of Mt. Doom as a rain of fire descends in the background, the look on the faces of the fellowship as they realize Sauron has fallen, but also that Frodo and Sam have likely been sacrificed, the sublime flight of the eagles, the perfect "good morning" scene, Thranduil on a massive elk (love that touch), Bilbo's hilarious overly-polite attempts at managing the dwarves, the Battle of Azanulbizar (possibly my favorite "battle" across all four films), and again, the eagle rescue, with that gorgeous long shot of them flying over the hills, and finally, that wonderful lingering shot of the thrush flying toward the mountain, and then tapping snails against the rock.

These are all great moments, and some of them are my favorite moments in cinema. So I am grateful for that.

[/quote]

Very clever, yovargas! :lol: PtB seems to have no defending argument on that. (kidding of course!)

[Passdagas the Brown]

PtB's an idiot. He has no idea what he's talking about.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Hey, no one talks about my friend PtB like that and gets away with it! Dems fighting words!!!11

(Back up to 72%, for what it is worth.)

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Went down as low as 70%, and then started climbing again, now back up to 73%. And still missing Richard Roeper and the LA Times (though they finally added the EW review).

[Voronwë the Faithful]

First 100 reviews, 72 fresh, 28 rotten (72%, of course). Average rating exactly 7.

Edit: 101st review fresh, but still 72%, of course.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Climbed back up to 73%.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And down to 72%.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Metacritic is down to 65, but that should be close to its final score. AUJ was 58 on 40 critics, and DoS has already had 38.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Still hanging tough at 73%. Still less than half of the total likely reviews though, so it still could go up or down some.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Now up to 74%. Might end up getting certified as "fresh" after all (75% or higher). Maybe it will even get up high enough for PtB's prediction to be correct (though I doubt it; I'm sure there are still plenty of rotten reviews to come).

[Smaug's voice]

I think certified fresh at RT is 65%. AUJ holds a certified fresh rating.

[Passdagas the Brown]

I think certified fresh at RT is 65%. AUJ holds a certified fresh rating.

That's correct. DOS is still fresh, though it will likely go rotten on my table.

[Voronwë the Faithful]

Ah, I was misinformed, but that makes sense. Still like to see it get to 75%.

Meanwhile, I checked something that I was wondering about. Rather unbelievably, there have been 17 critics who rated AUJ fresh and now rate DoS rotten. That is well over half of the rotten reviews. And while I haven't counted them, that means that with DoS having a considerably better rate of freshness, there must considerably more than 17 who have switched from rotten to fresh. So DoS is clearly appealing to a very different set of reviewers than AUJ.

Here is the list:

Bad Ass Digest
Decent Film Guide
Detroit News
Financial Times
Little White Lies
Miami Herald
New York Post
Newark Star-Ledger
NPR (but a different reviewer)
Reeling Reviews (Robin Clifford)
Reel Views
Rolling Stone
School Library Journal
Slant
St. Louis Post Dispatch
The List
TV Guide's Movie Guide .

[Smaug's voice]

I am terrified after seeing that conclusion!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

That's correct. DOS is still fresh, though it will likely go rotten on my table.

There is almost no way that it won't, with that attitude.

[Passdagas the Brown]

You know my philosophy, V. Expect the rotten, be pleasantly surprised by hints of freshness!

[Voronwë the Faithful]

SV, do I need to make a list of all of the reviewers who switched from rotten to fresh to make you less terrified?

[Voronwë the Faithful]

And ... back up to 75%. Are we seeing a surge in contrast to last year's plummet? Too soon to tell.

[Passdagas the Brown]

V, what are you doing up at 5:30am?

I have to admit to a sort of Christmas morning feeling on release day. A mix of joy and dread for the gifts to come...